Traders assign a 95% probability against a Trump visit to Gaza in 2026 because the territory remains unstable amid stalled implementation of the U.S.-backed 20-point ceasefire and reconstruction framework. Ongoing Israeli military operations, disputes over Hamas disarmament sequencing, and incomplete withdrawal of forces have kept security risks elevated, with no announced plans or diplomatic signals for a presidential trip inside the enclave. Trump has instead chaired the Board of Peace remotely while conducting regional diplomacy from safer venues such as Israel and Qatar. A visit would require verified full stabilization, formal invitations, and logistical assurances that current conditions do not support. Late-year breakthroughs in governance handover or an international summit hosted inside Gaza remain the primary low-probability catalysts that could alter the consensus.