Tunisia enters the 2026 FIFA World Cup in Group F alongside the Netherlands, Japan, and Sweden, a matchup that heavily shapes the 66.5% implied probability of group-stage elimination. The Carthage Eagles have never progressed past the group phase across six prior appearances, and recent warm-up results against stronger European sides highlighted defensive vulnerabilities and a quality gap. A new coaching setup under Sabri Lamouchi offers limited preparation time, while the squad's youth and reliance on a compact defensive structure face stern tests in three fixtures against organized, high-pressing opponents. Traders price deeper runs at single digits or less, reflecting the competitive depth in the group and Tunisia's historical pattern of early exits despite solid qualifying form against lesser opposition.