The provision limiting gambling loss deductions to 90 percent of winnings took effect for tax year 2026 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed in 2025, creating potential phantom income for bettors who break even or lose overall. Bipartisan repeal legislation has been introduced in Congress, yet efforts have stalled amid competing tax priorities, procedural hurdles, and limited floor time before the end of 2026. Recent industry lobbying, including a public appeal from UFC President Dana White to President Trump in mid-May 2026, has modestly increased attention on the issue and shifted some related prediction markets, but no dedicated legislative vehicle has advanced to passage. Traders therefore assign a 64.5 percent probability that the cap remains in place through the end of 2026, viewing the combination of fiscal scoring concerns and crowded congressional calendar as the dominant barriers to repeal before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$68,293 Vol.
$68,293 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$68,293 Vol.
$68,293 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The provision limiting gambling loss deductions to 90 percent of winnings took effect for tax year 2026 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed in 2025, creating potential phantom income for bettors who break even or lose overall. Bipartisan repeal legislation has been introduced in Congress, yet efforts have stalled amid competing tax priorities, procedural hurdles, and limited floor time before the end of 2026. Recent industry lobbying, including a public appeal from UFC President Dana White to President Trump in mid-May 2026, has modestly increased attention on the issue and shifted some related prediction markets, but no dedicated legislative vehicle has advanced to passage. Traders therefore assign a 64.5 percent probability that the cap remains in place through the end of 2026, viewing the combination of fiscal scoring concerns and crowded congressional calendar as the dominant barriers to repeal before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ET
Volume
$68,293Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. The provision limiting gambling loss deductions to 90 percent of winnings took effect for tax year 2026 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed in 2025, creating potential phantom income for bettors who break even or lose overall. Bipartisan repeal legislation has been introduced in Congress, yet efforts have stalled amid competing tax priorities, procedural hurdles, and limited floor time before the end of 2026. Recent industry lobbying, including a public appeal from UFC President Dana White to President Trump in mid-May 2026, has modestly increased attention on the issue and shifted some related prediction markets, but no dedicated legislative vehicle has advanced to passage. Traders therefore assign a 64.5 percent probability that the cap remains in place through the end of 2026, viewing the combination of fiscal scoring concerns and crowded congressional calendar as the dominant barriers to repeal before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 90% cap on gambling loss deductions enacted in the 2025 "Big Beautiful Bill" is fully repealed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify as a repeal, the cap must be entirely remove any cap limiting gambling loss deductions to below 100%.
Modifications—such as increasing the limit, delaying implementation or changing how it is calculated will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$68,293Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The provision limiting gambling loss deductions to 90 percent of winnings took effect for tax year 2026 under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act passed in 2025, creating potential phantom income for bettors who break even or lose overall. Bipartisan repeal legislation has been introduced in Congress, yet efforts have stalled amid competing tax priorities, procedural hurdles, and limited floor time before the end of 2026. Recent industry lobbying, including a public appeal from UFC President Dana White to President Trump in mid-May 2026, has modestly increased attention on the issue and shifted some related prediction markets, but no dedicated legislative vehicle has advanced to passage. Traders therefore assign a 64.5 percent probability that the cap remains in place through the end of 2026, viewing the combination of fiscal scoring concerns and crowded congressional calendar as the dominant barriers to repeal before 2027.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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