Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to no Cuban regime collapse through 2026, reflecting the Communist government's sustained control despite the 2024–2026 energy crisis fueled by U.S. oil embargo and nationwide blackouts. Protests erupted in Havana on May 14 amid rolling outages and shortages, including cacerolazos and fires, but state repression contained unrest similar to March demonstrations, with no organized opposition emerging as critics have largely fled. President Díaz-Canel led defiant May Day marches denouncing sanctions, bolstered by limited Russian oil shipments and Chinese support. Halfway through the year, traders weigh the regime's historical resilience against economic pressures and U.S. surveillance escalations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl regime cubano cadrà nel 2026?
Il regime cubano cadrà nel 2026?
Sì
$246,673 Vol.
$246,673 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$246,673 Vol.
$246,673 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to no Cuban regime collapse through 2026, reflecting the Communist government's sustained control despite the 2024–2026 energy crisis fueled by U.S. oil embargo and nationwide blackouts. Protests erupted in Havana on May 14 amid rolling outages and shortages, including cacerolazos and fires, but state repression contained unrest similar to March demonstrations, with no organized opposition emerging as critics have largely fled. President Díaz-Canel led defiant May Day marches denouncing sanctions, bolstered by limited Russian oil shipments and Chinese support. Halfway through the year, traders weigh the regime's historical resilience against economic pressures and U.S. surveillance escalations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ET
Volume
$246,673Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to no Cuban regime collapse through 2026, reflecting the Communist government's sustained control despite the 2024–2026 energy crisis fueled by U.S. oil embargo and nationwide blackouts. Protests erupted in Havana on May 14 amid rolling outages and shortages, including cacerolazos and fires, but state repression contained unrest similar to March demonstrations, with no organized opposition emerging as critics have largely fled. President Díaz-Canel led defiant May Day marches denouncing sanctions, bolstered by limited Russian oil shipments and Chinese support. Halfway through the year, traders weigh the regime's historical resilience against economic pressures and U.S. surveillance escalations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) ceases to exercise de facto governing control over Cuba by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A “Yes” resolution requires a clear and widely reported break from the PCC’s historical control over the government of Cuba. This may include events such as the overthrow or dissolution of the PCC and its replacement by a new government or transitional authority, the constitutional removal of the PCC’s status as the sole ruling party followed by a transfer of governing power to a different political entity, or the holding of multi-party national elections that result in a government not controlled by the PCC. A “Yes” resolution does not require the formal dissolution of the PCC, provided the PCC no longer exercises de facto governing control over Cuba.
Leadership changes within the PCC, including replacement of the First Secretary, or governmental reforms that preserve the PCC’s de facto governing control over Cuba, will not suffice. Partial loss of territory, civil unrest, or challenges by rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the PCC no longer administers the majority of the Cuban population within Cuba.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$246,673Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 10, 2026, 7:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to no Cuban regime collapse through 2026, reflecting the Communist government's sustained control despite the 2024–2026 energy crisis fueled by U.S. oil embargo and nationwide blackouts. Protests erupted in Havana on May 14 amid rolling outages and shortages, including cacerolazos and fires, but state repression contained unrest similar to March demonstrations, with no organized opposition emerging as critics have largely fled. President Díaz-Canel led defiant May Day marches denouncing sanctions, bolstered by limited Russian oil shipments and Chinese support. Halfway through the year, traders weigh the regime's historical resilience against economic pressures and U.S. surveillance escalations.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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