Heightened U.S. economic pressure on Cuba, including a January 2026 fuel blockade via executive order targeting oil suppliers, sanctions, and the May indictment of former leader Raúl Castro, has driven tensions without crossing into military invasion. Diplomatic talks, Cuban prisoner releases, and a CIA director meeting in Havana in May indicate ongoing negotiations amid the crisis. Traders assign the 92.5% probability to "No" because no troop deployments, airstrikes, or operational preparations have materialized despite administration rhetoric on regime change, reflecting barriers such as international reaction, domestic constraints, and preference for non-kinetic measures within the 2026 resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
8% probabilità
$3,250,503 Vol.
$3,250,503 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
8% probabilità
$3,250,503 Vol.
$3,250,503 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Heightened U.S. economic pressure on Cuba, including a January 2026 fuel blockade via executive order targeting oil suppliers, sanctions, and the May indictment of former leader Raúl Castro, has driven tensions without crossing into military invasion. Diplomatic talks, Cuban prisoner releases, and a CIA director meeting in Havana in May indicate ongoing negotiations amid the crisis. Traders assign the 92.5% probability to "No" because no troop deployments, airstrikes, or operational preparations have materialized despite administration rhetoric on regime change, reflecting barriers such as international reaction, domestic constraints, and preference for non-kinetic measures within the 2026 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercato aperto: Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Volume
$3,250,503Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Heightened U.S. economic pressure on Cuba, including a January 2026 fuel blockade via executive order targeting oil suppliers, sanctions, and the May indictment of former leader Raúl Castro, has driven tensions without crossing into military invasion. Diplomatic talks, Cuban prisoner releases, and a CIA director meeting in Havana in May indicate ongoing negotiations amid the crisis. Traders assign the 92.5% probability to "No" because no troop deployments, airstrikes, or operational preparations have materialized despite administration rhetoric on regime change, reflecting barriers such as international reaction, domestic constraints, and preference for non-kinetic measures within the 2026 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$3,250,503Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Heightened U.S. economic pressure on Cuba, including a January 2026 fuel blockade via executive order targeting oil suppliers, sanctions, and the May indictment of former leader Raúl Castro, has driven tensions without crossing into military invasion. Diplomatic talks, Cuban prisoner releases, and a CIA director meeting in Havana in May indicate ongoing negotiations amid the crisis. Traders assign the 92.5% probability to "No" because no troop deployments, airstrikes, or operational preparations have materialized despite administration rhetoric on regime change, reflecting barriers such as international reaction, domestic constraints, and preference for non-kinetic measures within the 2026 resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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