Despite heightened U.S. rhetoric and expanded sanctions under the Trump administration—including an oil blockade, indictments, and public statements linking Cuba to post-Iran operations—the absence of confirmed invasion preparations or large-scale troop movements by late October 2026 underpins the 94.5% implied probability for no invasion this year. U.S. Southern Command officials have explicitly stated that military forces are not rehearsing or planning an occupation or seizure of the island, prioritizing instead diplomatic pressure, economic restrictions via OFAC rules, and calls for internal Cuban change. Cuba’s regime has shown no major concessions on political or alliance issues, but traders view full-scale military action as unlikely before year-end given competing priorities and the preference for non-kinetic tools.