Trader consensus favors "No" at 59.5% for a US-Cuba military clash in 2026, driven by recent US official denials of imminent action despite President Trump's threats and a surge in US spy plane surveillance flights near the island over the past week. Senate Republicans cautioned against strikes yesterday, citing midterm election risks and voter fatigue with new conflicts. Cuba responded with warnings from its foreign minister and military drills, while new US sanctions target Havana's regime and elites via a May 1 executive order. Pentagon planning has accelerated quietly since April, but top generals affirm no invasion rehearsals, underscoring diplomatic and political barriers to escalation amid ongoing tensions over oil blockades and Guantanamo Bay.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoScontro militare USA-Cuba nel 2026?
Scontro militare USA-Cuba nel 2026?
$107,493 Vol.
$107,493 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$107,493 Vol.
$107,493 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors "No" at 59.5% for a US-Cuba military clash in 2026, driven by recent US official denials of imminent action despite President Trump's threats and a surge in US spy plane surveillance flights near the island over the past week. Senate Republicans cautioned against strikes yesterday, citing midterm election risks and voter fatigue with new conflicts. Cuba responded with warnings from its foreign minister and military drills, while new US sanctions target Havana's regime and elites via a May 1 executive order. Pentagon planning has accelerated quietly since April, but top generals affirm no invasion rehearsals, underscoring diplomatic and political barriers to escalation amid ongoing tensions over oil blockades and Guantanamo Bay.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$107,493Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors "No" at 59.5% for a US-Cuba military clash in 2026, driven by recent US official denials of imminent action despite President Trump's threats and a surge in US spy plane surveillance flights near the island over the past week. Senate Republicans cautioned against strikes yesterday, citing midterm election risks and voter fatigue with new conflicts. Cuba responded with warnings from its foreign minister and military drills, while new US sanctions target Havana's regime and elites via a May 1 executive order. Pentagon planning has accelerated quietly since April, but top generals affirm no invasion rehearsals, underscoring diplomatic and political barriers to escalation amid ongoing tensions over oil blockades and Guantanamo Bay.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Cuba between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Cuban military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the United States Coast Guard is considered part of the United States military, and the Cuban Border Guard is considered part of the Cuban military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$107,493Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 59.5% for a US-Cuba military clash in 2026, driven by recent US official denials of imminent action despite President Trump's threats and a surge in US spy plane surveillance flights near the island over the past week. Senate Republicans cautioned against strikes yesterday, citing midterm election risks and voter fatigue with new conflicts. Cuba responded with warnings from its foreign minister and military drills, while new US sanctions target Havana's regime and elites via a May 1 executive order. Pentagon planning has accelerated quietly since April, but top generals affirm no invasion rehearsals, underscoring diplomatic and political barriers to escalation amid ongoing tensions over oil blockades and Guantanamo Bay.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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