US Southern Command leadership recently stated that American forces are not rehearsing or preparing for any invasion or seizure of Cuban territory, even as the Trump administration maintains sanctions, an oil blockade, and public appeals for internal political change on the island. Diplomatic channels remain open between Washington and Havana with no formal negotiations underway, while President Trump has repeatedly suggested that Cuba’s economic difficulties make military action unnecessary and that a deal could follow operations elsewhere. These factors, alongside Cuba’s focus on managing internal grid failures and migration risks without direct confrontation, support the market’s 89.5% implied probability against a US-Cuba military clash before the end of 2026.