The US trade embargo, reinforced by tightened 2026 sanctions under the Trump administration that limit dealings with Cuban state entities while permitting only private-sector transactions, remains the dominant barrier preventing McDonald’s from announcing operations on the island. Cuban Decree 167, enacted in August after June announcements by Prime Minister Manuel Marrero, authorizes foreign food-service franchises in principle, yet no agreements, licensing deals, or corporate commitments have materialized amid unresolved issues over profit repatriation, supply chains, and sanctions compliance. Trader consensus at 96% against an announcement by year-end reflects these structural constraints and the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs. A late-2026 policy shift easing embargo restrictions or an unexpected bilateral accord could still alter the outcome before December 31.