Elon Musk’s recent daily posting volumes, averaging 15–25 main-feed posts, replies, and reposts in early August periods, anchor trader sentiment around the 40-64 bracket at 42% implied probability for the August 6–8 window. The closely contested 65-89 range at 34% highlights variability driven by his pattern of higher output during business news cycles or viral topics versus lighter weekend activity. Historical precedents from similar three-day stretches show sensitivity to real-time catalysts like Tesla or xAI updates, which can add 10–20 posts quickly. With no major confirmed announcements imminent, the tight spread between the top two outcomes reflects trader assessment of his baseline cadence versus potential spikes from breaking developments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato40-64 42%
65-89 34%
<40 15%
90-114 10%
NUOVO
NUOVO
8 ago 2026
<40
15%
40-64
42%
65-89
34%
90-114
10%
115-139
2%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
40-64 42%
65-89 34%
<40 15%
90-114 10%
NUOVO
NUOVO
8 ago 2026
<40
$502 Vol.
15%
40-64
$204 Vol.
42%
65-89
$200 Vol.
34%
90-114
$59 Vol.
10%
115-139
$40 Vol.
2%
140-164
$60 Vol.
<1%
165-189
$0 Vol.
<1%
190-214
$6 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$0 Vol.
<1%
240+
$260 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s recent daily posting volumes, averaging 15–25 main-feed posts, replies, and reposts in early August periods, anchor trader sentiment around the 40-64 bracket at 42% implied probability for the August 6–8 window. The closely contested 65-89 range at 34% highlights variability driven by his pattern of higher output during business news cycles or viral topics versus lighter weekend activity. Historical precedents from similar three-day stretches show sensitivity to real-time catalysts like Tesla or xAI updates, which can add 10–20 posts quickly. With no major confirmed announcements imminent, the tight spread between the top two outcomes reflects trader assessment of his baseline cadence versus potential spikes from breaking developments.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Mercato aperto: Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
Volume
$1,331Data di fine
8 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s recent daily posting volumes, averaging 15–25 main-feed posts, replies, and reposts in early August periods, anchor trader sentiment around the 40-64 bracket at 42% implied probability for the August 6–8 window. The closely contested 65-89 range at 34% highlights variability driven by his pattern of higher output during business news cycles or viral topics versus lighter weekend activity. Historical precedents from similar three-day stretches show sensitivity to real-time catalysts like Tesla or xAI updates, which can add 10–20 posts quickly. With no major confirmed announcements imminent, the tight spread between the top two outcomes reflects trader assessment of his baseline cadence versus potential spikes from breaking developments.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 6 12:00 PM ET to August 8, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$1,331Data di fine
8 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 3, 2026, 12:07 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s recent daily posting volumes, averaging 15–25 main-feed posts, replies, and reposts in early August periods, anchor trader sentiment around the 40-64 bracket at 42% implied probability for the August 6–8 window. The closely contested 65-89 range at 34% highlights variability driven by his pattern of higher output during business news cycles or viral topics versus lighter weekend activity. Historical precedents from similar three-day stretches show sensitivity to real-time catalysts like Tesla or xAI updates, which can add 10–20 posts quickly. With no major confirmed announcements imminent, the tight spread between the top two outcomes reflects trader assessment of his baseline cadence versus potential spikes from breaking developments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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