Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus personal settlement in his breach-of-contract lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman, driven by recent trial testimony in Oakland federal court that has undermined his claims. Musk admitted under oath to lacking a written agreement for OpenAI's nonprofit mission and acknowledged xAI's use of OpenAI models, weakening arguments over the company's for-profit pivot with Microsoft. He amended his complaint in April to direct any damages—potentially $134-150 billion—to OpenAI's nonprofit arm, explicitly forgoing personal gain, while pre-trial settlement overtures were rebuffed. Closing arguments are set for Thursday, with a verdict potentially weeks away, though a surprise out-of-court deal or unexpected ruling could shift dynamics amid high-stakes AI governance scrutiny.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoElon Musk vince un accordo di oltre $10 miliardi contro Altman/OpenAI?
Elon Musk vince un accordo di oltre $10 miliardi contro Altman/OpenAI?
Sì
$79,324 Vol.
$79,324 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$79,324 Vol.
$79,324 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus personal settlement in his breach-of-contract lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman, driven by recent trial testimony in Oakland federal court that has undermined his claims. Musk admitted under oath to lacking a written agreement for OpenAI's nonprofit mission and acknowledged xAI's use of OpenAI models, weakening arguments over the company's for-profit pivot with Microsoft. He amended his complaint in April to direct any damages—potentially $134-150 billion—to OpenAI's nonprofit arm, explicitly forgoing personal gain, while pre-trial settlement overtures were rebuffed. Closing arguments are set for Thursday, with a verdict potentially weeks away, though a surprise out-of-court deal or unexpected ruling could shift dynamics amid high-stakes AI governance scrutiny.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$79,324Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus personal settlement in his breach-of-contract lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman, driven by recent trial testimony in Oakland federal court that has undermined his claims. Musk admitted under oath to lacking a written agreement for OpenAI's nonprofit mission and acknowledged xAI's use of OpenAI models, weakening arguments over the company's for-profit pivot with Microsoft. He amended his complaint in April to direct any damages—potentially $134-150 billion—to OpenAI's nonprofit arm, explicitly forgoing personal gain, while pre-trial settlement overtures were rebuffed. Closing arguments are set for Thursday, with a verdict potentially weeks away, though a surprise out-of-court deal or unexpected ruling could shift dynamics amid high-stakes AI governance scrutiny.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$79,324Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 91.5% implied probability against Elon Musk securing a $10 billion-plus personal settlement in his breach-of-contract lawsuit against OpenAI and Sam Altman, driven by recent trial testimony in Oakland federal court that has undermined his claims. Musk admitted under oath to lacking a written agreement for OpenAI's nonprofit mission and acknowledged xAI's use of OpenAI models, weakening arguments over the company's for-profit pivot with Microsoft. He amended his complaint in April to direct any damages—potentially $134-150 billion—to OpenAI's nonprofit arm, explicitly forgoing personal gain, while pre-trial settlement overtures were rebuffed. Closing arguments are set for Thursday, with a verdict potentially weeks away, though a surprise out-of-court deal or unexpected ruling could shift dynamics amid high-stakes AI governance scrutiny.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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