The strong market-implied odds for “No” on a $10 billion-plus settlement reflect the collapse of pre-trial negotiations and the advanced stage of the federal lawsuit, where closing arguments concluded on May 14 and a nine-person jury began deliberating the following week. Elon Musk’s earlier outreach to OpenAI president Greg Brockman for a settlement was rejected, and the case has proceeded to verdict on claims of breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment. Legal hurdles, including potential statute-of-limitations barriers tied to events before August 2021, further tilt sentiment against a large negotiated payout. While a post-verdict settlement remains possible if the judge imposes remedies after any plaintiff-favorable ruling, the narrow scope of issues before the court and OpenAI’s aggressive defense make a $10 billion-plus agreement improbable before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoElon Musk vince un accordo di oltre $10 miliardi contro Altman/OpenAI?
Elon Musk vince un accordo di oltre $10 miliardi contro Altman/OpenAI?
Sì
$79,572 Vol.
$79,572 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$79,572 Vol.
$79,572 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The strong market-implied odds for “No” on a $10 billion-plus settlement reflect the collapse of pre-trial negotiations and the advanced stage of the federal lawsuit, where closing arguments concluded on May 14 and a nine-person jury began deliberating the following week. Elon Musk’s earlier outreach to OpenAI president Greg Brockman for a settlement was rejected, and the case has proceeded to verdict on claims of breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment. Legal hurdles, including potential statute-of-limitations barriers tied to events before August 2021, further tilt sentiment against a large negotiated payout. While a post-verdict settlement remains possible if the judge imposes remedies after any plaintiff-favorable ruling, the narrow scope of issues before the court and OpenAI’s aggressive defense make a $10 billion-plus agreement improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Volume
$79,572Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The strong market-implied odds for “No” on a $10 billion-plus settlement reflect the collapse of pre-trial negotiations and the advanced stage of the federal lawsuit, where closing arguments concluded on May 14 and a nine-person jury began deliberating the following week. Elon Musk’s earlier outreach to OpenAI president Greg Brockman for a settlement was rejected, and the case has proceeded to verdict on claims of breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment. Legal hurdles, including potential statute-of-limitations barriers tied to events before August 2021, further tilt sentiment against a large negotiated payout. While a post-verdict settlement remains possible if the judge imposes remedies after any plaintiff-favorable ruling, the narrow scope of issues before the court and OpenAI’s aggressive defense make a $10 billion-plus agreement improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$79,572Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The strong market-implied odds for “No” on a $10 billion-plus settlement reflect the collapse of pre-trial negotiations and the advanced stage of the federal lawsuit, where closing arguments concluded on May 14 and a nine-person jury began deliberating the following week. Elon Musk’s earlier outreach to OpenAI president Greg Brockman for a settlement was rejected, and the case has proceeded to verdict on claims of breach of charitable trust and unjust enrichment. Legal hurdles, including potential statute-of-limitations barriers tied to events before August 2021, further tilt sentiment against a large negotiated payout. While a post-verdict settlement remains possible if the judge imposes remedies after any plaintiff-favorable ruling, the narrow scope of issues before the court and OpenAI’s aggressive defense make a $10 billion-plus agreement improbable before resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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