The 94.5% market-implied probability of no Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the central bank's current 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range, supported by resilient U.S. growth, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%, and inflation remaining elevated above the 2% PCE goal amid supply shocks. Recent FOMC decisions, including the July 2026 hold and dissent votes favoring tighter policy, align with this outlook as analysts like Goldman Sachs now project the first cuts only in 2027. Strong capital investment and moderate wage growth further reduce the likelihood of an unscheduled easing. A sharp recession, major financial crisis, or severe escalation in geopolitical tensions could still prompt an emergency response by altering the data trajectory.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
6% probabilità
$136,923 Vol.
$136,923 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
6% probabilità
$136,923 Vol.
$136,923 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The 94.5% market-implied probability of no Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the central bank's current 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range, supported by resilient U.S. growth, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%, and inflation remaining elevated above the 2% PCE goal amid supply shocks. Recent FOMC decisions, including the July 2026 hold and dissent votes favoring tighter policy, align with this outlook as analysts like Goldman Sachs now project the first cuts only in 2027. Strong capital investment and moderate wage growth further reduce the likelihood of an unscheduled easing. A sharp recession, major financial crisis, or severe escalation in geopolitical tensions could still prompt an emergency response by altering the data trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Mercato aperto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volume
$136,923Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The 94.5% market-implied probability of no Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the central bank's current 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range, supported by resilient U.S. growth, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%, and inflation remaining elevated above the 2% PCE goal amid supply shocks. Recent FOMC decisions, including the July 2026 hold and dissent votes favoring tighter policy, align with this outlook as analysts like Goldman Sachs now project the first cuts only in 2027. Strong capital investment and moderate wage growth further reduce the likelihood of an unscheduled easing. A sharp recession, major financial crisis, or severe escalation in geopolitical tensions could still prompt an emergency response by altering the data trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volume
$136,923Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 94.5% market-implied probability of no Fed emergency rate cut before 2027 reflects the central bank's current 3.50-3.75% federal funds target range, supported by resilient U.S. growth, a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1%, and inflation remaining elevated above the 2% PCE goal amid supply shocks. Recent FOMC decisions, including the July 2026 hold and dissent votes favoring tighter policy, align with this outlook as analysts like Goldman Sachs now project the first cuts only in 2027. Strong capital investment and moderate wage growth further reduce the likelihood of an unscheduled easing. A sharp recession, major financial crisis, or severe escalation in geopolitical tensions could still prompt an emergency response by altering the data trajectory.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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