Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda's dominant position in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+12 partisan voting index, and her strong primary performance where she secured over 91 percent of the vote on August 8, 2026. Race forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election matchup against Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa. Tokuda's substantial fundraising edge and the absence of serious opposition within her party reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A late scandal, significant national political shift altering turnout patterns, or unforeseen health development could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical results and current structural factors make such reversals unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHI-02 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
HI-02 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
$63,531 Vol.
$63,531 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
96%
Partito Repubblicano
6%
$63,531 Vol.
$63,531 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$43,095 Vol.
96%
Partito Repubblicano
$20,436 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda's dominant position in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+12 partisan voting index, and her strong primary performance where she secured over 91 percent of the vote on August 8, 2026. Race forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election matchup against Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa. Tokuda's substantial fundraising edge and the absence of serious opposition within her party reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A late scandal, significant national political shift altering turnout patterns, or unforeseen health development could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical results and current structural factors make such reversals unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$63,531Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda's dominant position in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+12 partisan voting index, and her strong primary performance where she secured over 91 percent of the vote on August 8, 2026. Race forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election matchup against Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa. Tokuda's substantial fundraising edge and the absence of serious opposition within her party reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A late scandal, significant national political shift altering turnout patterns, or unforeseen health development could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical results and current structural factors make such reversals unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$63,531Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda's dominant position in Hawaii's 2nd congressional district stems from the district's consistent Democratic lean, reflected in its D+12 partisan voting index, and her strong primary performance where she secured over 91 percent of the vote on August 8, 2026. Race forecasters rate the seat as solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election matchup against Republican state Sen. Brenton Awa. Tokuda's substantial fundraising edge and the absence of serious opposition within her party reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A late scandal, significant national political shift altering turnout patterns, or unforeseen health development could theoretically narrow the margin, though historical results and current structural factors make such reversals unlikely.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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