**Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda’s commanding position in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District stems from the state’s longstanding Democratic dominance, her strong incumbency, and the district’s partisan composition.** Tokuda secured the Democratic nomination with over 91% of the primary vote on August 8, 2026, demonstrating unified party support ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Brenton Awa advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats have consistently prevailed by wide margins, including Kamala Harris’s 17.5-point 2024 victory there. Nonpartisan and forecasting models rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, with projected margins exceeding 50 points. Trader consensus at 95.5% Democratic reflects these fundamentals and the absence of recent events capable of shifting the race into competitive territory. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal, major health event, or national political realignment altering turnout, though such factors remain low-probability given current conditions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoHI-02 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
HI-02 Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera
$63,531 Vol.
$63,531 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
96%
Partito Repubblicano
6%
$63,531 Vol.
$63,531 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$43,095 Vol.
96%
Partito Repubblicano
$20,436 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda’s commanding position in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District stems from the state’s longstanding Democratic dominance, her strong incumbency, and the district’s partisan composition.** Tokuda secured the Democratic nomination with over 91% of the primary vote on August 8, 2026, demonstrating unified party support ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Brenton Awa advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats have consistently prevailed by wide margins, including Kamala Harris’s 17.5-point 2024 victory there. Nonpartisan and forecasting models rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, with projected margins exceeding 50 points. Trader consensus at 95.5% Democratic reflects these fundamentals and the absence of recent events capable of shifting the race into competitive territory. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal, major health event, or national political realignment altering turnout, though such factors remain low-probability given current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$63,531Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda’s commanding position in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District stems from the state’s longstanding Democratic dominance, her strong incumbency, and the district’s partisan composition.** Tokuda secured the Democratic nomination with over 91% of the primary vote on August 8, 2026, demonstrating unified party support ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Brenton Awa advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats have consistently prevailed by wide margins, including Kamala Harris’s 17.5-point 2024 victory there. Nonpartisan and forecasting models rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, with projected margins exceeding 50 points. Trader consensus at 95.5% Democratic reflects these fundamentals and the absence of recent events capable of shifting the race into competitive territory. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal, major health event, or national political realignment altering turnout, though such factors remain low-probability given current conditions.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$63,531Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...**Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda’s commanding position in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District stems from the state’s longstanding Democratic dominance, her strong incumbency, and the district’s partisan composition.** Tokuda secured the Democratic nomination with over 91% of the primary vote on August 8, 2026, demonstrating unified party support ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Brenton Awa advanced unopposed but faces structural headwinds in a district where Democrats have consistently prevailed by wide margins, including Kamala Harris’s 17.5-point 2024 victory there. Nonpartisan and forecasting models rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, with projected margins exceeding 50 points. Trader consensus at 95.5% Democratic reflects these fundamentals and the absence of recent events capable of shifting the race into competitive territory. Late developments that could narrow the gap include an unforeseen scandal, major health event, or national political realignment altering turnout, though such factors remain low-probability given current conditions.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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