Moonshot AI's July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, which posted 46.9–56% on Humanity’s Last Exam depending on tool use and evaluation conditions, has anchored trader sentiment for Kimi reaching 50%+ or higher by year-end. K3 sits just behind leading Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 variants on most September 2026 leaderboards while benefiting from open-weights releases that enable community fine-tuning and agentic enhancements. Earlier K2.5 and K2.6 iterations showed steady gains on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, but HLE’s design limits rapid saturation. Key catalysts through December include further tool-augmented updates, larger context handling, and potential new variants, though competition from Anthropic and OpenAI models continues to set a high bar for Moonshot’s trajectory.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl punteggio più alto di Kimi all'ultimo esame dell'umanità nel 2026?
Il punteggio più alto di Kimi all'ultimo esame dell'umanità nel 2026?
$58,203 Vol.
31 dic 2026
45%+
81%
50%+
35%
55% o più
19%
60%+
11%
65%+
6%
$58,203 Vol.
45%+
$14,679 Vol.
81%
50%+
$20,444 Vol.
35%
55% o più
$11,550 Vol.
19%
60%+
$9,708 Vol.
11%
65%+
$1,822 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI's July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, which posted 46.9–56% on Humanity’s Last Exam depending on tool use and evaluation conditions, has anchored trader sentiment for Kimi reaching 50%+ or higher by year-end. K3 sits just behind leading Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 variants on most September 2026 leaderboards while benefiting from open-weights releases that enable community fine-tuning and agentic enhancements. Earlier K2.5 and K2.6 iterations showed steady gains on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, but HLE’s design limits rapid saturation. Key catalysts through December include further tool-augmented updates, larger context handling, and potential new variants, though competition from Anthropic and OpenAI models continues to set a high bar for Moonshot’s trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercato aperto: Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$58,203Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://agi.safe.ai/Risolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI's July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, which posted 46.9–56% on Humanity’s Last Exam depending on tool use and evaluation conditions, has anchored trader sentiment for Kimi reaching 50%+ or higher by year-end. K3 sits just behind leading Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 variants on most September 2026 leaderboards while benefiting from open-weights releases that enable community fine-tuning and agentic enhancements. Earlier K2.5 and K2.6 iterations showed steady gains on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, but HLE’s design limits rapid saturation. Key catalysts through December include further tool-augmented updates, larger context handling, and potential new variants, though competition from Anthropic and OpenAI models continues to set a high bar for Moonshot’s trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$58,203Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://agi.safe.ai/Risolutore
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI's July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3 model, which posted 46.9–56% on Humanity’s Last Exam depending on tool use and evaluation conditions, has anchored trader sentiment for Kimi reaching 50%+ or higher by year-end. K3 sits just behind leading Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 variants on most September 2026 leaderboards while benefiting from open-weights releases that enable community fine-tuning and agentic enhancements. Earlier K2.5 and K2.6 iterations showed steady gains on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, but HLE’s design limits rapid saturation. Key catalysts through December include further tool-augmented updates, larger context handling, and potential new variants, though competition from Anthropic and OpenAI models continues to set a high bar for Moonshot’s trajectory.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il punteggio più alto ottenuto all’Ultimo Esame dell’Umanità nel 2026 sarà pari o superiore al 60%?
52%
Sì
Il punteggio più alto raggiunto da un modello OpenAI nell'Ultimo Esame dell'Umanità nel 2026 sarà pari o superiore al 55%?
76%
Sì
Il punteggio più alto raggiunto da un modello Meta all’Humanity’s Last Exam nel 2026 sarà del 55% o superiore?
35%
Sì
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