Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, featuring a 1-million-token context window, native multimodal support, and Stable LatentMoE architecture, has anchored trader expectations for the model’s 2026 HLE performance. Current independent evaluations place Kimi K3 at approximately 46.9% on standard HLE runs and up to 56% with tools, positioning it as the leading open-weight entry but trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (59.1%) and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (54.7%). Recent availability on Amazon Bedrock and incremental gains from K2.8 preview updates support continued fine-tuning and agentic optimizations through year-end. HLE’s expert-authored questions across mathematics, sciences, and humanities make further double-digit gains challenging without major new releases or scaffolding breakthroughs.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoIl punteggio più alto di Kimi all'ultimo esame dell'umanità nel 2026?
Il punteggio più alto di Kimi all'ultimo esame dell'umanità nel 2026?
$63,365 Vol.
31 dic 2026
45%+
85%
50%+
40%
55% o più
19%
60%+
11%
65%+
7%
$63,365 Vol.
45%+
$15,400 Vol.
85%
50%+
$24,595 Vol.
40%
55% o più
$11,805 Vol.
19%
60%+
$9,733 Vol.
11%
65%+
$1,832 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, featuring a 1-million-token context window, native multimodal support, and Stable LatentMoE architecture, has anchored trader expectations for the model’s 2026 HLE performance. Current independent evaluations place Kimi K3 at approximately 46.9% on standard HLE runs and up to 56% with tools, positioning it as the leading open-weight entry but trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (59.1%) and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (54.7%). Recent availability on Amazon Bedrock and incremental gains from K2.8 preview updates support continued fine-tuning and agentic optimizations through year-end. HLE’s expert-authored questions across mathematics, sciences, and humanities make further double-digit gains challenging without major new releases or scaffolding breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercato aperto: Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$63,365Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://agi.safe.ai/Risolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, featuring a 1-million-token context window, native multimodal support, and Stable LatentMoE architecture, has anchored trader expectations for the model’s 2026 HLE performance. Current independent evaluations place Kimi K3 at approximately 46.9% on standard HLE runs and up to 56% with tools, positioning it as the leading open-weight entry but trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (59.1%) and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (54.7%). Recent availability on Amazon Bedrock and incremental gains from K2.8 preview updates support continued fine-tuning and agentic optimizations through year-end. HLE’s expert-authored questions across mathematics, sciences, and humanities make further double-digit gains challenging without major new releases or scaffolding breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Moonshot Kimi model achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$63,365Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 23, 2026, 6:43 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://agi.safe.ai/Risolutore
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI’s July 2026 release of the 2.8-trillion-parameter Kimi K3, featuring a 1-million-token context window, native multimodal support, and Stable LatentMoE architecture, has anchored trader expectations for the model’s 2026 HLE performance. Current independent evaluations place Kimi K3 at approximately 46.9% on standard HLE runs and up to 56% with tools, positioning it as the leading open-weight entry but trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (59.1%) and OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra (54.7%). Recent availability on Amazon Bedrock and incremental gains from K2.8 preview updates support continued fine-tuning and agentic optimizations through year-end. HLE’s expert-authored questions across mathematics, sciences, and humanities make further double-digit gains challenging without major new releases or scaffolding breakthroughs.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCorrelati
Il punteggio più alto ottenuto all’Ultimo Esame dell’Umanità nel 2026 sarà pari o superiore al 60%?
44%
Sì
Il punteggio più alto raggiunto da un modello OpenAI nell'Ultimo Esame dell'Umanità nel 2026 sarà pari o superiore al 55%?
78%
Sì
Il punteggio più alto raggiunto da un modello Meta all’Humanity’s Last Exam nel 2026 sarà del 55% o superiore?
26%
Sì
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