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icon for Punteggio Meta più alto all'ultimo esame dell'umanità nel 2026?

Punteggio Meta più alto all'ultimo esame dell'umanità nel 2026?

icon for Punteggio Meta più alto all'ultimo esame dell'umanità nel 2026?

Punteggio Meta più alto all'ultimo esame dell'umanità nel 2026?

$64,947 Vol.

31 dic 2026
Polymarket

$64,947 Vol.

Polymarket

55%+

$41,025 Vol.

33%

60%+

$13,616 Vol.

20%

65%+

$8,420 Vol.

16%

70%+

$1,887 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 large language model has driven recent trader sentiment by posting 62% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards in September 2026 evaluations, placing it within a few points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants while outperforming several GPT-5 configurations. This rapid climb from earlier Llama releases reflects Meta’s scaled investment in reasoning-focused training and high-effort inference modes on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, which tests graduate-level knowledge across mathematics, sciences, and other domains. Competitive dynamics favor Meta due to lower inference costs and open-weight options that accelerate developer adoption, though Anthropic and OpenAI maintain slight edges on verified closed-book runs. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Muse Spark 1.2 or 1.3 releases and any year-end model updates before the December 31, 2026 resolution, which could push Meta past the 65% or 70% thresholds if scaling laws and post-training refinements continue at current pace.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$64,947
Data di fine
1 gen 2027
Mercato aperto
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ET

Fonte di risoluzione

https://agi.safe.ai/

Risolutore

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 large language model has driven recent trader sentiment by posting 62% accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards in September 2026 evaluations, placing it within a few points of Anthropic’s leading Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 variants while outperforming several GPT-5 configurations. This rapid climb from earlier Llama releases reflects Meta’s scaled investment in reasoning-focused training and high-effort inference modes on the 2,500-question expert benchmark, which tests graduate-level knowledge across mathematics, sciences, and other domains. Competitive dynamics favor Meta due to lower inference costs and open-weight options that accelerate developer adoption, though Anthropic and OpenAI maintain slight edges on verified closed-book runs. Key upcoming catalysts include potential Muse Spark 1.2 or 1.3 releases and any year-end model updates before the December 31, 2026 resolution, which could push Meta past the 65% or 70% thresholds if scaling laws and post-training refinements continue at current pace.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by Meta achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$64,947
Data di fine
1 gen 2027
Mercato aperto
Jul 23, 2026, 6:48 PM ET

Fonte di risoluzione

https://agi.safe.ai/

Risolutore

0x65070BE91...

Fai attenzione ai link esterni.

Domande frequenti

"Punteggio Meta più alto all'ultimo esame dell'umanità nel 2026?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 4 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "55%+" a 33%, seguito da "60%+" a 20%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 33¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 33% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Punteggio Meta più alto all'ultimo esame dell'umanità nel 2026?" ha generato $64.9K in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Jul 23, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Punteggio Meta più alto all'ultimo esame dell'umanità nel 2026?", esplora i 4 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Punteggio Meta più alto all'ultimo esame dell'umanità nel 2026?" è "55%+" a 33%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 33% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "60%+" a 20%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Punteggio Meta più alto all'ultimo esame dell'umanità nel 2026?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.