**OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.4/5.5 Pro variants currently post 54–58% on September 2026 HLE leaderboards (with or without tools), trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 at 59–65%.** Market-implied odds favor OpenAI reaching at least 55% by year-end while assigning lower probability to 60%+ thresholds, reflecting the benchmark’s continued headroom and Anthropic’s recent lead. Traders are watching OpenAI’s release cadence, reasoning enhancements, and tool-augmented setups as the main swing factors, alongside potential competitive responses from other labs. The frontier remains far from saturation, so any major capability jump or delayed rollout could shift resolution odds quickly before December 31.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPunteggio OpenAI più alto all'ultimo esame dell'umanità nel 2026?
$98,012 Vol.
55%+
76%
60%+
38%
65% o più
22%
70% o più
10%
$98,012 Vol.
55%+
76%
60%+
38%
65% o più
22%
70% o più
10%
For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercato aperto: Jul 23, 2026, 6:53 PM ET
Risolutore
0x65070BE91...For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric.
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
Risolutore
0x65070BE91...**OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra and GPT-5.4/5.5 Pro variants currently post 54–58% on September 2026 HLE leaderboards (with or without tools), trailing Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 at 59–65%.** Market-implied odds favor OpenAI reaching at least 55% by year-end while assigning lower probability to 60%+ thresholds, reflecting the benchmark’s continued headroom and Anthropic’s recent lead. Traders are watching OpenAI’s release cadence, reasoning enhancements, and tool-augmented setups as the main swing factors, alongside potential competitive responses from other labs. The frontier remains far from saturation, so any major capability jump or delayed rollout could shift resolution odds quickly before December 31.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato



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