Recent forecast guidance from models and Argentina’s Servicio Meteorológico Nacional indicates a cooler air mass arriving mid-week, limiting the October 7 maximum in Buenos Aires to the 17–20 °C range amid widespread cloud cover, easterly winds, and a high probability of thunderstorms. This pattern favors 18 °C or 19 °C as the most likely outcomes, aligning with the closely matched market-implied odds near 30–31 %. Model spreads arise mainly from differences in timing of the frontal passage and boundary-layer moisture, which can shift the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Historical October averages hover near 20–22 °C, so the current setup represents a notable negative anomaly. Updated runs and official briefings over the next 48 hours will likely refine the precise ceiling before resolution.