National Weather Service model consensus and recent runs indicate a cooler-than-normal air mass will reach Chicago on August 1, 2026, driven by northerly flow behind a departing front and limited daytime heating under increasing clouds. This has shifted trader-implied odds toward the 70–73 °F range as the most probable outcome, well below the 1991–2020 August 1 climatological high of 84 °F. Key differentiating factors include lake-breeze moderation along the shoreline, potential for partial cloud cover reducing insolation, and uncertainty in exact frontal timing that could allow brief warming if winds turn more westerly. Official forecast updates from the Chicago NWS office through tonight will provide the final guidance ahead of market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta di Chicago il 1° agosto?
La temperatura più alta di Chicago il 1° agosto?
70-71°F 37%
72-73°F 31%
68-69°F 17%
74-75°F 16%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 ago 2026
63°F o inferiore
1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
17%
70-71°F
37%
72-73°F
31%
74-75°F
16%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
1%
82°F o superiore
1%
70-71°F 37%
72-73°F 31%
68-69°F 17%
74-75°F 16%
NUOVO
NUOVO
1 ago 2026
63°F o inferiore
$139 Vol.
1%
64-65°F
$140 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$36 Vol.
3%
68-69°F
$238 Vol.
17%
70-71°F
$506 Vol.
37%
72-73°F
$328 Vol.
31%
74-75°F
$99 Vol.
16%
76-77°F
$129 Vol.
3%
78-79°F
$107 Vol.
2%
80-81°F
$133 Vol.
1%
82°F o superiore
$162 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service model consensus and recent runs indicate a cooler-than-normal air mass will reach Chicago on August 1, 2026, driven by northerly flow behind a departing front and limited daytime heating under increasing clouds. This has shifted trader-implied odds toward the 70–73 °F range as the most probable outcome, well below the 1991–2020 August 1 climatological high of 84 °F. Key differentiating factors include lake-breeze moderation along the shoreline, potential for partial cloud cover reducing insolation, and uncertainty in exact frontal timing that could allow brief warming if winds turn more westerly. Official forecast updates from the Chicago NWS office through tonight will provide the final guidance ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$2,016Data di fine
1 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service model consensus and recent runs indicate a cooler-than-normal air mass will reach Chicago on August 1, 2026, driven by northerly flow behind a departing front and limited daytime heating under increasing clouds. This has shifted trader-implied odds toward the 70–73 °F range as the most probable outcome, well below the 1991–2020 August 1 climatological high of 84 °F. Key differentiating factors include lake-breeze moderation along the shoreline, potential for partial cloud cover reducing insolation, and uncertainty in exact frontal timing that could allow brief warming if winds turn more westerly. Official forecast updates from the Chicago NWS office through tonight will provide the final guidance ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,016Data di fine
1 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...National Weather Service model consensus and recent runs indicate a cooler-than-normal air mass will reach Chicago on August 1, 2026, driven by northerly flow behind a departing front and limited daytime heating under increasing clouds. This has shifted trader-implied odds toward the 70–73 °F range as the most probable outcome, well below the 1991–2020 August 1 climatological high of 84 °F. Key differentiating factors include lake-breeze moderation along the shoreline, potential for partial cloud cover reducing insolation, and uncertainty in exact frontal timing that could allow brief warming if winds turn more westerly. Official forecast updates from the Chicago NWS office through tonight will provide the final guidance ahead of market resolution.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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