Recent Met Office forecasts for London on August 4 point to sunny intervals and a daytime maximum of 28°C under building high pressure, supporting the market's clustering around 27–29°C. Warm southerly flow and strong insolation are driving the above-average temperatures following a period of more unsettled conditions, though increasing cloud or scattered showers could cap peaks near the lower end of that range. Model consensus favors 28°C as the most likely outcome at official stations, with urban heat-island effects and exact timing of any frontal passage creating the narrow spread reflected in trader positions. Updated guidance ahead of the date will clarify whether additional sunshine pushes readings to 29°C or keeps them closer to seasonal norms.