Recent forecasts from Metservice and international models indicate a cooler-than-average day for Wellington on August 4, with southerly flows and increased cloud cover limiting daytime warming and positioning the daily maximum near 9–10 °C. This aligns with trader emphasis on those outcomes, as historical August highs average around 12 °C while current guidance shows temperatures 2–3 °C below the seasonal norm. NIWA’s seasonal outlook reinforces near- or below-average conditions across the North Island through the month, and similar short-term patterns resolved the prior day’s market at 11 °C before cooler air arrived. Updated model runs and official observations through the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities if warmer northerlies strengthen.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoLa temperatura più alta a Wellington il 4 agosto?
La temperatura più alta a Wellington il 4 agosto?
10°C 50%
11°C 27%
9°C 21%
7°C 4%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ago 2026
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
4%
8°C
4%
9°C
21%
10°C
50%
11°C
27%
12°C
4%
13°C
2%
14°C or higher
2%
10°C 50%
11°C 27%
9°C 21%
7°C 4%
NUOVO
NUOVO
4 ago 2026
4°C or below
$378 Vol.
<1%
5°C
$368 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$212 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$20 Vol.
4%
8°C
$7 Vol.
4%
9°C
$59 Vol.
21%
10°C
$89 Vol.
50%
11°C
$43 Vol.
27%
12°C
$12 Vol.
4%
13°C
$27 Vol.
2%
14°C or higher
$20 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Metservice and international models indicate a cooler-than-average day for Wellington on August 4, with southerly flows and increased cloud cover limiting daytime warming and positioning the daily maximum near 9–10 °C. This aligns with trader emphasis on those outcomes, as historical August highs average around 12 °C while current guidance shows temperatures 2–3 °C below the seasonal norm. NIWA’s seasonal outlook reinforces near- or below-average conditions across the North Island through the month, and similar short-term patterns resolved the prior day’s market at 11 °C before cooler air arrived. Updated model runs and official observations through the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities if warmer northerlies strengthen.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$1,235Data di fine
4 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Metservice and international models indicate a cooler-than-average day for Wellington on August 4, with southerly flows and increased cloud cover limiting daytime warming and positioning the daily maximum near 9–10 °C. This aligns with trader emphasis on those outcomes, as historical August highs average around 12 °C while current guidance shows temperatures 2–3 °C below the seasonal norm. NIWA’s seasonal outlook reinforces near- or below-average conditions across the North Island through the month, and similar short-term patterns resolved the prior day’s market at 11 °C before cooler air arrived. Updated model runs and official observations through the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities if warmer northerlies strengthen.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,235Data di fine
4 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETFonte di risoluzione
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Metservice and international models indicate a cooler-than-average day for Wellington on August 4, with southerly flows and increased cloud cover limiting daytime warming and positioning the daily maximum near 9–10 °C. This aligns with trader emphasis on those outcomes, as historical August highs average around 12 °C while current guidance shows temperatures 2–3 °C below the seasonal norm. NIWA’s seasonal outlook reinforces near- or below-average conditions across the North Island through the month, and similar short-term patterns resolved the prior day’s market at 11 °C before cooler air arrived. Updated model runs and official observations through the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift implied probabilities if warmer northerlies strengthen.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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