President Trump has repeatedly threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act amid protests against expanded ICE enforcement operations, most notably in Minnesota in January 2026 following an agent-involved fatality and deployment of thousands of federal personnel. No invocation has occurred despite these statements, as prior attempts to federalize National Guard units under alternative statutes faced Supreme Court limits. With the 2026 midterms approaching, trader focus centers on whether escalating border-related unrest, state-federal clashes, or election security concerns could prompt formal use of the Act's broad domestic deployment authority. Congress has considered reforms to narrow presidential discretion, while historical precedent shows invocations are rare and typically tied to clear civil disorder or state requests. Upcoming midterm voting and any renewed protest activity remain key variables that could shift implied probabilities.