Jerome Powell's transition from Fed Chair to governor following the May 2026 end of his term as chair, with Kevin Warsh assuming the role, centers trader focus on his Board tenure through January 2028 amid ongoing political and legal pressures from the Trump administration. Powell has publicly committed to remaining until a DOJ investigation into Fed headquarters renovations concludes with full transparency, framing his decision as a defense of central bank independence rather than a fixed exit timeline. Recent Polymarket pricing reflects trader consensus around a 63% implied probability of departure by December 31, 2026, driven by potential legal resolutions, administration challenges to his position, and any shifts in monetary policy dynamics under the new chair. Key near-term catalysts include updates on the probe and broader regulatory or congressional actions affecting Board composition.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$435,015 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 dicembre
20%
$435,015 Vol.
31 dicembre
$148,423 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Jerome Powell's transition from Fed Chair to governor following the May 2026 end of his term as chair, with Kevin Warsh assuming the role, centers trader focus on his Board tenure through January 2028 amid ongoing political and legal pressures from the Trump administration. Powell has publicly committed to remaining until a DOJ investigation into Fed headquarters renovations concludes with full transparency, framing his decision as a defense of central bank independence rather than a fixed exit timeline. Recent Polymarket pricing reflects trader consensus around a 63% implied probability of departure by December 31, 2026, driven by potential legal resolutions, administration challenges to his position, and any shifts in monetary policy dynamics under the new chair. Key near-term catalysts include updates on the probe and broader regulatory or congressional actions affecting Board composition.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Mercato aperto: Jan 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ET
Volume
$435,015Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Jerome Powell's transition from Fed Chair to governor following the May 2026 end of his term as chair, with Kevin Warsh assuming the role, centers trader focus on his Board tenure through January 2028 amid ongoing political and legal pressures from the Trump administration. Powell has publicly committed to remaining until a DOJ investigation into Fed headquarters renovations concludes with full transparency, framing his decision as a defense of central bank independence rather than a fixed exit timeline. Recent Polymarket pricing reflects trader consensus around a 63% implied probability of departure by December 31, 2026, driven by potential legal resolutions, administration challenges to his position, and any shifts in monetary policy dynamics under the new chair. Key near-term catalysts include updates on the probe and broader regulatory or congressional actions affecting Board composition.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Jerome Powell ceases to hold a position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors for any period of time between this market's creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market is not limited to Jerome Powell’s current position as chair of the Federal Reserve. If Jerome Powell ceases to be Chair of the Federal Reserve, but remains a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, this will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volume
$435,015Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 5, 2026, 4:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Jerome Powell's transition from Fed Chair to governor following the May 2026 end of his term as chair, with Kevin Warsh assuming the role, centers trader focus on his Board tenure through January 2028 amid ongoing political and legal pressures from the Trump administration. Powell has publicly committed to remaining until a DOJ investigation into Fed headquarters renovations concludes with full transparency, framing his decision as a defense of central bank independence rather than a fixed exit timeline. Recent Polymarket pricing reflects trader consensus around a 63% implied probability of departure by December 31, 2026, driven by potential legal resolutions, administration challenges to his position, and any shifts in monetary policy dynamics under the new chair. Key near-term catalysts include updates on the probe and broader regulatory or congressional actions affecting Board composition.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti