Jerome Powell's continued service on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors hinges on political pressures from the Trump administration and resolution of an ongoing investigation into the Fed's headquarters construction project. His 14-year governor term runs until January 31, 2028, following the end of his chairmanship in May 2026, when Kevin Warsh assumed the role. Powell has publicly committed to remaining until the probe concludes with transparency, creating uncertainty around potential early departure amid tensions over central bank independence. Market-implied odds reflect these dynamics, with trader sentiment sensitive to any FOMC communications, regulatory updates, or administration actions that could accelerate or delay his exit. No major developments have shifted the outlook in recent weeks.