Moonshot AI's rapid release cadence—Kimi K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and flagship K3 (2.8T-parameter MoE with 1M context) on July 16, 2026—sets expectations for K4, but the company has not announced timelines, benchmarks, or API details for a successor. Public reporting from August indicates K4 remains in early development as a significantly larger model, with Moonshot seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity. Recent activity centers on K3 deployment, including a September 11 rollout of the more efficient K2.8 Preview on Kimi Code, alongside ongoing agentic features and third-party integrations. Competitive pressure from DeepSeek, Qwen, and GLM models, plus compute constraints and recent controversies over model distillation, shape trader focus on whether a full K4 launch occurs before year-end or requires extended scaling.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoKimi K4 rilasciato da...?
Kimi K4 rilasciato da...?
$17,843 Vol.
31 ott 2026
31 ottobre 2026
4%
31 dicembre 2026
6%
$17,843 Vol.
31 ottobre 2026
$9,518 Vol.
4%
31 dicembre 2026
$8,325 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's rapid release cadence—Kimi K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and flagship K3 (2.8T-parameter MoE with 1M context) on July 16, 2026—sets expectations for K4, but the company has not announced timelines, benchmarks, or API details for a successor. Public reporting from August indicates K4 remains in early development as a significantly larger model, with Moonshot seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity. Recent activity centers on K3 deployment, including a September 11 rollout of the more efficient K2.8 Preview on Kimi Code, alongside ongoing agentic features and third-party integrations. Competitive pressure from DeepSeek, Qwen, and GLM models, plus compute constraints and recent controversies over model distillation, shape trader focus on whether a full K4 launch occurs before year-end or requires extended scaling.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$17,843Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI's rapid release cadence—Kimi K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and flagship K3 (2.8T-parameter MoE with 1M context) on July 16, 2026—sets expectations for K4, but the company has not announced timelines, benchmarks, or API details for a successor. Public reporting from August indicates K4 remains in early development as a significantly larger model, with Moonshot seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity. Recent activity centers on K3 deployment, including a September 11 rollout of the more efficient K2.8 Preview on Kimi Code, alongside ongoing agentic features and third-party integrations. Competitive pressure from DeepSeek, Qwen, and GLM models, plus compute constraints and recent controversies over model distillation, shape trader focus on whether a full K4 launch occurs before year-end or requires extended scaling.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$17,843Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI's rapid release cadence—Kimi K2.6 in April, K2.7 Code in June, and flagship K3 (2.8T-parameter MoE with 1M context) on July 16, 2026—sets expectations for K4, but the company has not announced timelines, benchmarks, or API details for a successor. Public reporting from August indicates K4 remains in early development as a significantly larger model, with Moonshot seeking additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity. Recent activity centers on K3 deployment, including a September 11 rollout of the more efficient K2.8 Preview on Kimi Code, alongside ongoing agentic features and third-party integrations. Competitive pressure from DeepSeek, Qwen, and GLM models, plus compute constraints and recent controversies over model distillation, shape trader focus on whether a full K4 launch occurs before year-end or requires extended scaling.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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