Kentucky’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+18 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, which underpins trader consensus around the Republican nominee. The May 19 primary features incumbent Thomas Massie facing Ed Gallrein, whose Trump endorsement has tightened polling but leaves the general-election outcome largely unaffected. Democratic primary contenders Jesse Brewer and Melissa Strange lack the fundraising or name recognition to mount a credible challenge in this solidly Republican seat, as rated by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. The November 3 general election timeline and absence of major scandals or redistricting shifts further anchor expectations that the Republican will prevail, though a late national swing or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow margins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoKY-04 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
KY-04 Vincitore delle elezioni presidenziali
$15,808 Vol.
$15,808 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
91%
Partito Democratico
9%
$15,808 Vol.
$15,808 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Repubblicano
$14,492 Vol.
91%
Partito Democratico
$1,316 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+18 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, which underpins trader consensus around the Republican nominee. The May 19 primary features incumbent Thomas Massie facing Ed Gallrein, whose Trump endorsement has tightened polling but leaves the general-election outcome largely unaffected. Democratic primary contenders Jesse Brewer and Melissa Strange lack the fundraising or name recognition to mount a credible challenge in this solidly Republican seat, as rated by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. The November 3 general election timeline and absence of major scandals or redistricting shifts further anchor expectations that the Republican will prevail, though a late national swing or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$15,808Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Kentucky’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+18 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, which underpins trader consensus around the Republican nominee. The May 19 primary features incumbent Thomas Massie facing Ed Gallrein, whose Trump endorsement has tightened polling but leaves the general-election outcome largely unaffected. Democratic primary contenders Jesse Brewer and Melissa Strange lack the fundraising or name recognition to mount a credible challenge in this solidly Republican seat, as rated by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. The November 3 general election timeline and absence of major scandals or redistricting shifts further anchor expectations that the Republican will prevail, though a late national swing or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow margins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$15,808Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky’s 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt, reflected in its R+18 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles, which underpins trader consensus around the Republican nominee. The May 19 primary features incumbent Thomas Massie facing Ed Gallrein, whose Trump endorsement has tightened polling but leaves the general-election outcome largely unaffected. Democratic primary contenders Jesse Brewer and Melissa Strange lack the fundraising or name recognition to mount a credible challenge in this solidly Republican seat, as rated by Cook Political Report and Inside Elections. The November 3 general election timeline and absence of major scandals or redistricting shifts further anchor expectations that the Republican will prevail, though a late national swing or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow margins.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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