Recent private polls place the People’s Party (PP) first with roughly 31-32% support and the Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (PSOE) second on 26-27%, ahead of Vox on 18-20%. This ordering has held across most surveys since the snap election was called in early October following rejection of housing measures. PSOE’s position as the likely runner-up is reinforced by stable vote shares and the absence of major shifts that would elevate another party into second. Trader pricing on the 2nd-place market aligns with these seat projections, which show PSOE securing the second-highest total in nearly all simulations while PP and Vox together approach a congressional majority. The state CIS poll remains an outlier favoring PSOE first, but private polling averages sustain the current consensus.