Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, assumed office in March 2026 after his father’s assassination amid ongoing regional conflict, yet he has maintained an extremely low public profile with no confirmed appearances or direct addresses since taking power. This limited visibility has prompted trader focus on whether health concerns, security risks, or internal power dynamics might prompt his departure from the country before the June 30 resolution deadline. Key factors include the transitional nature of the Assembly of Experts selection process, statements from security elites on decision-making consensus, and the broader context of wartime leadership continuity. Any verified travel for medical care or diplomatic engagement could shift implied probabilities, while continued absence would likely reinforce current trader consensus around stability in place.