**Leonard Krog holds a clear lead in the Nanaimo mayoral market as the incumbent seeking a third term.** He announced his re-election bid in late July 2026, leveraging his record since 2018, prior service as an MLA, and emphasis on core municipal services amid local concerns over housing, public safety, and budgets. Anne Marie Dryden, positioned at a lower probability, launched her campaign earlier in 2026 as the mayoral candidate for the new Real Nanaimo electoral organization, highlighting fiscal responsibility, accountability, and transparency with more than 35 years of community and business experience. Nominations open in September for the October 17, 2026 vote, leaving room for additional declared candidates to emerge and potentially shift trader assessments before the campaign period begins.