The November 3 election in Minnesota’s 8th congressional district produced results consistent with the leading market pricing for a Republican margin of 6-9%. Incumbent Pete Stauber received 53.1% of the reported vote to Trina Swanson’s 46.8%, a 6.2-point spread that falls squarely inside the highest-probability bucket. The district’s R+7 partisan lean and Stauber’s prior 58% performance in 2024 set expectations for a Republican hold, while a single late-October poll showing a 6-point lead and limited additional survey data left little room for sharp shifts. With vote counting largely complete, remaining uncertified precincts and any late provisional ballots represent the primary variables that could still adjust the final certified margin within or adjacent to the current leading range.