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Elezioni·Midterms

CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

icon for CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner
Elezioni·Midterms

CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner

Luke Bronin 42%

John Larson 36%

Ruth Fortune 4.5%

Jillian Gilchrest 2.1%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Luke Bronin 42%

John Larson 36%

Ruth Fortune 4.5%

Jillian Gilchrest 2.1%

Polymarket
NUOVO

Luke Bronin

$3,895 Vol.

42%

John Larson

$699 Vol.

38%

Ruth Fortune

$848 Vol.

4%

Jillian Gilchrest

$1,817 Vol.

2%

Mark Stewart Greenstein

$1,521 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin’s narrow upset victory over 14-term incumbent Rep. John Larson at the May 11 Connecticut Democratic convention—securing the party endorsement 214-204 on the second ballot—has intensified the CT-01 Democratic primary race ahead of the August 11 vote, with trader consensus reflecting a razor-thin contest as Larson holds a slight 40% implied probability edge over Bronin’s 36%. Bronin’s momentum from local endorsements, including Hartford’s current mayor and city councilors, plus superior Q1 fundraising ($511k raised, $1.8M cash on hand versus Larson’s $452k and $1.1M), bolsters his challenge to the longtime incumbent’s name recognition and congressional experience. Jillian Gilchrest qualified for the ballot via convention performance, but trails distant; further polls, debates, or major endorsements could tip the balance in this closely matched intraparty battle.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$8,781
Data di fine
11 ago 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin’s narrow upset victory over 14-term incumbent Rep. John Larson at the May 11 Connecticut Democratic convention—securing the party endorsement 214-204 on the second ballot—has intensified the CT-01 Democratic primary race ahead of the August 11 vote, with trader consensus reflecting a razor-thin contest as Larson holds a slight 40% implied probability edge over Bronin’s 36%. Bronin’s momentum from local endorsements, including Hartford’s current mayor and city councilors, plus superior Q1 fundraising ($511k raised, $1.8M cash on hand versus Larson’s $452k and $1.1M), bolsters his challenge to the longtime incumbent’s name recognition and congressional experience. Jillian Gilchrest qualified for the ballot via convention performance, but trails distant; further polls, debates, or major endorsements could tip the balance in this closely matched intraparty battle.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$8,781
Data di fine
11 ago 2026
Mercato aperto
Feb 26, 2026, 5:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the CT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Domande frequenti

"CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 5 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Luke Bronin" a 42%, seguito da "John Larson" a 38%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 42¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 42% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

"CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" è un mercato appena creato su Polymarket, lanciato il Feb 26, 2026. Come mercato nuovo, questa è la tua opportunità di essere tra i primi trader a stabilire le quote e i segnali di prezzo iniziali del mercato. Puoi anche aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti per monitorare il volume e l'attività di trading man mano che il mercato guadagna visibilità.

Per fare trading su "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner", esplora i 5 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" è "Luke Bronin" a 42%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 42% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "John Larson" a 38%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "CT-01 Democratic Primary Winner" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.