Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten holds a commanding position in Michigan’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The western Michigan seat, encompassing Grand Rapids and surrounding suburbs in Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties, carries a D+4 partisan voter index and has shifted steadily Democratic since 2016, with Scholten flipping it in 2022 and expanding her margin in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, citing her incumbency, fundraising edge, and the absence of major controversies or polling shifts following the August 4 primaries, where Republican nominee Terri DeBoer emerged. Trader consensus on Polymarket, reflected in the 92% Democratic and 7% Republican probabilities, aligns with these structural factors and historical turnout patterns. A national Republican wave, unexpected Democratic vulnerabilities, or sharply depressed turnout could narrow the gap, though the district’s fundamentals limit the scope for an upset.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoMI-03 House Election Winner
MI-03 House Election Winner
$19,116 Vol.
$19,116 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
92%
Republican Party
7%
$19,116 Vol.
$19,116 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$15,174 Vol.
92%
Republican Party
$3,942 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten holds a commanding position in Michigan’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The western Michigan seat, encompassing Grand Rapids and surrounding suburbs in Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties, carries a D+4 partisan voter index and has shifted steadily Democratic since 2016, with Scholten flipping it in 2022 and expanding her margin in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, citing her incumbency, fundraising edge, and the absence of major controversies or polling shifts following the August 4 primaries, where Republican nominee Terri DeBoer emerged. Trader consensus on Polymarket, reflected in the 92% Democratic and 7% Republican probabilities, aligns with these structural factors and historical turnout patterns. A national Republican wave, unexpected Democratic vulnerabilities, or sharply depressed turnout could narrow the gap, though the district’s fundamentals limit the scope for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ET
Volume
$19,116Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten holds a commanding position in Michigan’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The western Michigan seat, encompassing Grand Rapids and surrounding suburbs in Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties, carries a D+4 partisan voter index and has shifted steadily Democratic since 2016, with Scholten flipping it in 2022 and expanding her margin in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, citing her incumbency, fundraising edge, and the absence of major controversies or polling shifts following the August 4 primaries, where Republican nominee Terri DeBoer emerged. Trader consensus on Polymarket, reflected in the 92% Democratic and 7% Republican probabilities, aligns with these structural factors and historical turnout patterns. A national Republican wave, unexpected Democratic vulnerabilities, or sharply depressed turnout could narrow the gap, though the district’s fundamentals limit the scope for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,116Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 16, 2025, 11:59 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Hillary Scholten holds a commanding position in Michigan’s 3rd congressional district heading into the November 2026 general election. The western Michigan seat, encompassing Grand Rapids and surrounding suburbs in Kent, Ottawa, and Muskegon counties, carries a D+4 partisan voter index and has shifted steadily Democratic since 2016, with Scholten flipping it in 2022 and expanding her margin in 2024. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic, citing her incumbency, fundraising edge, and the absence of major controversies or polling shifts following the August 4 primaries, where Republican nominee Terri DeBoer emerged. Trader consensus on Polymarket, reflected in the 92% Democratic and 7% Republican probabilities, aligns with these structural factors and historical turnout patterns. A national Republican wave, unexpected Democratic vulnerabilities, or sharply depressed turnout could narrow the gap, though the district’s fundamentals limit the scope for an upset.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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