Analilia Mejia’s decisive victory in the April 2026 special election, where she secured roughly 60 percent of the vote as the Democratic nominee, has solidified trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the November general election. The district’s partisan lean, reflected in its D+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Democratic performance since 2018, favors the incumbent against Republican challenger Joe Hathaway. Mejia’s primary win over more established candidates and strong general-election margins in suburban areas have further reinforced this positioning. A Republican victory would require an unusually strong national midterm environment, significant erosion of Democratic turnout, or major local shifts in voter priorities that have not materialized in recent polling or election results.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNJ-11 House Election Winner
NJ-11 House Election Winner
$39,548 Vol.
$39,548 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$39,548 Vol.
$39,548 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$23,573 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$15,975 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Analilia Mejia’s decisive victory in the April 2026 special election, where she secured roughly 60 percent of the vote as the Democratic nominee, has solidified trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the November general election. The district’s partisan lean, reflected in its D+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Democratic performance since 2018, favors the incumbent against Republican challenger Joe Hathaway. Mejia’s primary win over more established candidates and strong general-election margins in suburban areas have further reinforced this positioning. A Republican victory would require an unusually strong national midterm environment, significant erosion of Democratic turnout, or major local shifts in voter priorities that have not materialized in recent polling or election results.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$39,548Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Analilia Mejia’s decisive victory in the April 2026 special election, where she secured roughly 60 percent of the vote as the Democratic nominee, has solidified trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the November general election. The district’s partisan lean, reflected in its D+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Democratic performance since 2018, favors the incumbent against Republican challenger Joe Hathaway. Mejia’s primary win over more established candidates and strong general-election margins in suburban areas have further reinforced this positioning. A Republican victory would require an unusually strong national midterm environment, significant erosion of Democratic turnout, or major local shifts in voter priorities that have not materialized in recent polling or election results.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,548Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Analilia Mejia’s decisive victory in the April 2026 special election, where she secured roughly 60 percent of the vote as the Democratic nominee, has solidified trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the November general election. The district’s partisan lean, reflected in its D+5 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent Democratic performance since 2018, favors the incumbent against Republican challenger Joe Hathaway. Mejia’s primary win over more established candidates and strong general-election margins in suburban areas have further reinforced this positioning. A Republican victory would require an unusually strong national midterm environment, significant erosion of Democratic turnout, or major local shifts in voter priorities that have not materialized in recent polling or election results.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti