Democrat Katy Padilla Stout defeated Republican Brandon Herrera by roughly 8 points in the November 3, 2026, contest for the open Texas 23rd congressional district, an outcome that aligns with the market’s leading 6-9% Democrat margin price. The seat became vacant after incumbent Tony Gonzales resigned in April amid scandal, leaving an R-leaning district that Trump carried by 15 points in 2024. Pre-election polling showed a near tie or slight Republican edge, while ratings from Cook and others classified the race as Lean or Likely Republican; Democratic turnout in El Paso County precincts and broader South Texas shifts produced the final 52.1% to 44.0% result. Trader consensus on the 6-9% band reflects ongoing vote canvassing and the independent candidate’s modest share, with separation still possible only if remaining provisional or mail ballots materially alter the certified total.