Midway through May 2026, Polymarket traders price "Nothing" at 83.5% implied probability for this geopolitics market, reflecting the absence of any triggering events since May 1: no US-Iran permanent peace deal amid stalled bilateral diplomacy and Tehran's rejection of proposals over the past week; no Iranian leadership change without official succession announcements; WTI crude oil prices stable well below $150 per barrel despite Middle East tensions; no US military action against Cuba or official confirmation of aliens; and Russia maintaining focus on Ukraine without NATO incursions. High structural barriers to these tail-risk outcomes, coupled with no major catalysts ahead of May 31 resolution, underpin the crowd's consensus on continued stability, though sudden diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations could shift odds rapidly.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNothing Ever Happens: May
Nothing Ever Happens: May
Niente
$84,793 Vol.
$84,793 Vol.
31 mag 2026
Niente
$84,793 Vol.
$84,793 Vol.
31 mag 2026
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdfMidway through May 2026, Polymarket traders price "Nothing" at 83.5% implied probability for this geopolitics market, reflecting the absence of any triggering events since May 1: no US-Iran permanent peace deal amid stalled bilateral diplomacy and Tehran's rejection of proposals over the past week; no Iranian leadership change without official succession announcements; WTI crude oil prices stable well below $150 per barrel despite Middle East tensions; no US military action against Cuba or official confirmation of aliens; and Russia maintaining focus on Ukraine without NATO incursions. High structural barriers to these tail-risk outcomes, coupled with no major catalysts ahead of May 31 resolution, underpin the crowd's consensus on continued stability, though sudden diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations could shift odds rapidly.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
Mercato aperto: Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ET
Volume
$84,793Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdfMidway through May 2026, Polymarket traders price "Nothing" at 83.5% implied probability for this geopolitics market, reflecting the absence of any triggering events since May 1: no US-Iran permanent peace deal amid stalled bilateral diplomacy and Tehran's rejection of proposals over the past week; no Iranian leadership change without official succession announcements; WTI crude oil prices stable well below $150 per barrel despite Middle East tensions; no US military action against Cuba or official confirmation of aliens; and Russia maintaining focus on Ukraine without NATO incursions. High structural barriers to these tail-risk outcomes, coupled with no major catalysts ahead of May 31 resolution, underpin the crowd's consensus on continued stability, though sudden diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations could shift odds rapidly.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
Volume
$84,793Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Midway through May 2026, Polymarket traders price "Nothing" at 83.5% implied probability for this geopolitics market, reflecting the absence of any triggering events since May 1: no US-Iran permanent peace deal amid stalled bilateral diplomacy and Tehran's rejection of proposals over the past week; no Iranian leadership change without official succession announcements; WTI crude oil prices stable well below $150 per barrel despite Middle East tensions; no US military action against Cuba or official confirmation of aliens; and Russia maintaining focus on Ukraine without NATO incursions. High structural barriers to these tail-risk outcomes, coupled with no major catalysts ahead of May 31 resolution, underpin the crowd's consensus on continued stability, though sudden diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations could shift odds rapidly.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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