North Korea conducted its eighth missile test of 2026 on May 26-27, involving tactical ballistic and cruise missiles from a new multi-purpose launch system, before entering a lull with no launches reported in the first ten days of June. This extended pause since late May, combined with the month’s early stage, underpins trader consensus favoring fewer than one test by month-end at 58 percent implied probability. Patterns of sporadic testing rather than sustained clusters, alongside routine military exercises and production increases, limit expectations for rapid escalation to three or more launches, priced at just 5 percent.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoNumber of North Korea Missile Tests in June 2026?
Number of North Korea Missile Tests in June 2026?
<1 59%
1-2 32%
3+ 5.0%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 giu 2026
<1
59%
1-2
36%
3+
5%
<1 59%
1-2 32%
3+ 5.0%
NUOVO
NUOVO
30 giu 2026
<1
$1,608 Vol.
59%
1-2
$193 Vol.
36%
3+
$243 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during June 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea conducted its eighth missile test of 2026 on May 26-27, involving tactical ballistic and cruise missiles from a new multi-purpose launch system, before entering a lull with no launches reported in the first ten days of June. This extended pause since late May, combined with the month’s early stage, underpins trader consensus favoring fewer than one test by month-end at 58 percent implied probability. Patterns of sporadic testing rather than sustained clusters, alongside routine military exercises and production increases, limit expectations for rapid escalation to three or more launches, priced at just 5 percent.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during June 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Mercato aperto: May 26, 2026, 6:42 PM ET
Volume
$2,043Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 26, 2026, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during June 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.North Korea conducted its eighth missile test of 2026 on May 26-27, involving tactical ballistic and cruise missiles from a new multi-purpose launch system, before entering a lull with no launches reported in the first ten days of June. This extended pause since late May, combined with the month’s early stage, underpins trader consensus favoring fewer than one test by month-end at 58 percent implied probability. Patterns of sporadic testing rather than sustained clusters, alongside routine military exercises and production increases, limit expectations for rapid escalation to three or more launches, priced at just 5 percent.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during June 2026, Pyongyang Time.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began.
Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify.
Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify.
Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Volume
$2,043Data di fine
30 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 26, 2026, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...North Korea conducted its eighth missile test of 2026 on May 26-27, involving tactical ballistic and cruise missiles from a new multi-purpose launch system, before entering a lull with no launches reported in the first ten days of June. This extended pause since late May, combined with the month’s early stage, underpins trader consensus favoring fewer than one test by month-end at 58 percent implied probability. Patterns of sporadic testing rather than sustained clusters, alongside routine military exercises and production increases, limit expectations for rapid escalation to three or more launches, priced at just 5 percent.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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