SpaceX's repeated successful catches of the Super Heavy booster using the launch tower's mechanical arms—achieved multiple times since late 2024—represent the core driver behind the 73.5% market-implied odds for full Starship reusability before 2028. These tower catches, combined with ongoing V3 upgrades to avionics, grid fins, and Raptor engine relight capabilities, have validated the booster recovery pathway and rapid turnaround potential. While upper-stage Starship reentries and landings have shown mixed results amid test flights through mid-2026, including propellant transfer demos and controlled descents, traders weigh SpaceX's Falcon 9 heritage and aggressive 2026 flight cadence as outweighing typical aerospace delays. Key near-term catalysts include additional V3 missions targeting both stages' recovery and reuse.