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icon for Il traffico dello Stretto di Hormuz torna alla normalità entro la fine di giugno?
Economy·Macro Geopolitica

Il traffico dello Stretto di Hormuz torna alla normalità entro la fine di giugno?

icon for Il traffico dello Stretto di Hormuz torna alla normalità entro la fine di giugno?
Economy·Macro Geopolitica

Il traffico dello Stretto di Hormuz torna alla normalità entro la fine di giugno?

mag 15

mag 31

giu 30

lug 31

mag 15

mag 31

giu 30

lug 31

Sì

32% probabilità
Polymarket

$5,020,629 Vol.

Sì

32% probabilità
Polymarket

$5,020,629 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic normalizing by June's end, reflecting persistent US-Iran hostilities amid the ongoing Gulf conflict that slashed transits 95% since March 2026 strikes. Recent maritime attacks—including a May 7 missile strike on a CMA CGM vessel and IRGC small-boat assaults on tankers—have stalled sporadic crossings, with only nine ships transiting May 4 versus pre-war averages of 20-25 daily. Over 2,000 vessels remain stranded, forcing overland rerouting and spiking oil, fertilizer, and freight costs. While May 8 Iran-US talks signal a potential commercial reopening framework, unresolved ceasefire breaches sustain geopolitical risk premiums, dimming prospects for full resumption absent de-escalation catalysts like verified naval stand-downs.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$5,020,629
Data di fine
30 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68.5% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic normalizing by June's end, reflecting persistent US-Iran hostilities amid the ongoing Gulf conflict that slashed transits 95% since March 2026 strikes. Recent maritime attacks—including a May 7 missile strike on a CMA CGM vessel and IRGC small-boat assaults on tankers—have stalled sporadic crossings, with only nine ships transiting May 4 versus pre-war averages of 20-25 daily. Over 2,000 vessels remain stranded, forcing overland rerouting and spiking oil, fertilizer, and freight costs. While May 8 Iran-US talks signal a potential commercial reopening framework, unresolved ceasefire breaches sustain geopolitical risk premiums, dimming prospects for full resumption absent de-escalation catalysts like verified naval stand-downs.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$5,020,629
Data di fine
30 giu 2026
Mercato aperto
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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Domande frequenti

"Il traffico dello Stretto di Hormuz torna alla normalità entro la fine di giugno?" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 2 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Il traffico nello Stretto di Hormuz tornerà alla normalità entro la fine di giugno?" a 32%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 32¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 32% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.

Ad oggi, "Il traffico dello Stretto di Hormuz torna alla normalità entro la fine di giugno?" ha generato $5 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Apr 13, 2026. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.

Per fare trading su "Il traffico dello Stretto di Hormuz torna alla normalità entro la fine di giugno?", esplora i 2 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.

L'attuale favorito per "Il traffico dello Stretto di Hormuz torna alla normalità entro la fine di giugno?" è "Il traffico nello Stretto di Hormuz tornerà alla normalità entro la fine di giugno?" a 32%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 32% a quell'esito. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.

Le regole di risoluzione per "Il traffico dello Stretto di Hormuz torna alla normalità entro la fine di giugno?" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.