The January 2026 U.S. military operation capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has shaped current trader consensus, with no comparable actions or troop deployments reported since. The administration has instead emphasized tariffs, sanctions enforcement, and bilateral security cooperation with partners across the region to address migration and narcotics flows. Recent statements from U.S. officials indicate heightened surveillance near Cuba but explicitly rule out imminent strikes, while diplomatic engagements and trade negotiations continue with Mexico and other nations. These developments, combined with the absence of new escalation triggers through mid-May, support the 76.5% implied probability that no additional invasion will occur before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$220,324 Vol.
$220,324 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$220,324 Vol.
$220,324 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The January 2026 U.S. military operation capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has shaped current trader consensus, with no comparable actions or troop deployments reported since. The administration has instead emphasized tariffs, sanctions enforcement, and bilateral security cooperation with partners across the region to address migration and narcotics flows. Recent statements from U.S. officials indicate heightened surveillance near Cuba but explicitly rule out imminent strikes, while diplomatic engagements and trade negotiations continue with Mexico and other nations. These developments, combined with the absence of new escalation triggers through mid-May, support the 76.5% implied probability that no additional invasion will occur before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercato aperto: Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$220,324Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.The January 2026 U.S. military operation capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has shaped current trader consensus, with no comparable actions or troop deployments reported since. The administration has instead emphasized tariffs, sanctions enforcement, and bilateral security cooperation with partners across the region to address migration and narcotics flows. Recent statements from U.S. officials indicate heightened surveillance near Cuba but explicitly rule out imminent strikes, while diplomatic engagements and trade negotiations continue with Mexico and other nations. These developments, combined with the absence of new escalation triggers through mid-May, support the 76.5% implied probability that no additional invasion will occur before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Latin American country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by the relevant country or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
Qualifying Latin America countries: Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Paraguay, Peru, Suriname, Uruguay, Venezuela,, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$220,324Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 4, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The January 2026 U.S. military operation capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro has shaped current trader consensus, with no comparable actions or troop deployments reported since. The administration has instead emphasized tariffs, sanctions enforcement, and bilateral security cooperation with partners across the region to address migration and narcotics flows. Recent statements from U.S. officials indicate heightened surveillance near Cuba but explicitly rule out imminent strikes, while diplomatic engagements and trade negotiations continue with Mexico and other nations. These developments, combined with the absence of new escalation triggers through mid-May, support the 76.5% implied probability that no additional invasion will occur before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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