The January 2026 U.S. military operation capturing Nicolás Maduro and his wife, followed by diplomatic normalization, embassy reopening, sanctions relief on Venezuelan oil exports, and interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez, has reduced escalation risks and shaped trader assessments of any full-scale invasion by a future deadline. Subsequent developments include June earthquakes prompting U.S. humanitarian assistance and deportation flights, plus August bipartisan Senate resolutions supporting elections and prisoner releases amid coalition talks. These steps toward stabilization, combined with U.S. influence over policy without direct governance, anchor current market positioning around limited further military action absent major new triggers like regime non-compliance or cartel escalations.