Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026 at just 6.5% probability, reflecting de-escalation since early-year rhetoric. Tensions peaked in January following U.S. military action against Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, when President Trump suggested Colombia—labeled a "major non-NATO ally"—faced similar drug trafficking issues under President Petro, prompting Colombian vows of military defense and Petro's threats to take up arms. A February White House meeting thawed relations, with Trump praising Petro amid ongoing counternarcotics talks. No escalatory diplomatic signals, troop movements, or sanctions have emerged in recent weeks, despite Petro's April warnings of Latin American "rebellion" against U.S. pressure. Colombia's presidential election this year adds uncertainty, but absent concrete invasion triggers like border incidents or failed diplomacy, odds favor stability through year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$26,294 Vol.
$26,294 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$26,294 Vol.
$26,294 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026 at just 6.5% probability, reflecting de-escalation since early-year rhetoric. Tensions peaked in January following U.S. military action against Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, when President Trump suggested Colombia—labeled a "major non-NATO ally"—faced similar drug trafficking issues under President Petro, prompting Colombian vows of military defense and Petro's threats to take up arms. A February White House meeting thawed relations, with Trump praising Petro amid ongoing counternarcotics talks. No escalatory diplomatic signals, troop movements, or sanctions have emerged in recent weeks, despite Petro's April warnings of Latin American "rebellion" against U.S. pressure. Colombia's presidential election this year adds uncertainty, but absent concrete invasion triggers like border incidents or failed diplomacy, odds favor stability through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Volume
$26,294Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026 at just 6.5% probability, reflecting de-escalation since early-year rhetoric. Tensions peaked in January following U.S. military action against Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, when President Trump suggested Colombia—labeled a "major non-NATO ally"—faced similar drug trafficking issues under President Petro, prompting Colombian vows of military defense and Petro's threats to take up arms. A February White House meeting thawed relations, with Trump praising Petro amid ongoing counternarcotics talks. No escalatory diplomatic signals, troop movements, or sanctions have emerged in recent weeks, despite Petro's April warnings of Latin American "rebellion" against U.S. pressure. Colombia's presidential election this year adds uncertainty, but absent concrete invasion triggers like border incidents or failed diplomacy, odds favor stability through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$26,294Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026 at just 6.5% probability, reflecting de-escalation since early-year rhetoric. Tensions peaked in January following U.S. military action against Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro, when President Trump suggested Colombia—labeled a "major non-NATO ally"—faced similar drug trafficking issues under President Petro, prompting Colombian vows of military defense and Petro's threats to take up arms. A February White House meeting thawed relations, with Trump praising Petro amid ongoing counternarcotics talks. No escalatory diplomatic signals, troop movements, or sanctions have emerged in recent weeks, despite Petro's April warnings of Latin American "rebellion" against U.S. pressure. Colombia's presidential election this year adds uncertainty, but absent concrete invasion triggers like border incidents or failed diplomacy, odds favor stability through year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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