Traders assign a 97.4% probability to no U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026, reflecting the absence of sustained military mobilization or formal declarations despite early-year tensions. Bilateral friction peaked after U.S. operations in Venezuela and related counternarcotics disputes, prompting presidential rhetoric, sanctions, tariffs, and visa restrictions, yet direct diplomacy—including a February 2026 leaders’ meeting—produced de-escalation without further escalation. Colombia’s status as a longtime security partner, ongoing channels for migration and drug policy coordination, and its scheduled presidential transition this year reinforce expectations of continued pressure through economic and diplomatic tools rather than armed intervention. Plausible shifts could still arise from major narcotics incidents, breakdowns in talks, or rapid policy reversals after the Colombian election, though no such triggers have materialized.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
3% probabilità
$148,666 Vol.
$148,666 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
3% probabilità
$148,666 Vol.
$148,666 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 97.4% probability to no U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026, reflecting the absence of sustained military mobilization or formal declarations despite early-year tensions. Bilateral friction peaked after U.S. operations in Venezuela and related counternarcotics disputes, prompting presidential rhetoric, sanctions, tariffs, and visa restrictions, yet direct diplomacy—including a February 2026 leaders’ meeting—produced de-escalation without further escalation. Colombia’s status as a longtime security partner, ongoing channels for migration and drug policy coordination, and its scheduled presidential transition this year reinforce expectations of continued pressure through economic and diplomatic tools rather than armed intervention. Plausible shifts could still arise from major narcotics incidents, breakdowns in talks, or rapid policy reversals after the Colombian election, though no such triggers have materialized.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
Volume
$148,666Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 97.4% probability to no U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026, reflecting the absence of sustained military mobilization or formal declarations despite early-year tensions. Bilateral friction peaked after U.S. operations in Venezuela and related counternarcotics disputes, prompting presidential rhetoric, sanctions, tariffs, and visa restrictions, yet direct diplomacy—including a February 2026 leaders’ meeting—produced de-escalation without further escalation. Colombia’s status as a longtime security partner, ongoing channels for migration and drug policy coordination, and its scheduled presidential transition this year reinforce expectations of continued pressure through economic and diplomatic tools rather than armed intervention. Plausible shifts could still arise from major narcotics incidents, breakdowns in talks, or rapid policy reversals after the Colombian election, though no such triggers have materialized.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$148,666Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.4% probability to no U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026, reflecting the absence of sustained military mobilization or formal declarations despite early-year tensions. Bilateral friction peaked after U.S. operations in Venezuela and related counternarcotics disputes, prompting presidential rhetoric, sanctions, tariffs, and visa restrictions, yet direct diplomacy—including a February 2026 leaders’ meeting—produced de-escalation without further escalation. Colombia’s status as a longtime security partner, ongoing channels for migration and drug policy coordination, and its scheduled presidential transition this year reinforce expectations of continued pressure through economic and diplomatic tools rather than armed intervention. Plausible shifts could still arise from major narcotics incidents, breakdowns in talks, or rapid policy reversals after the Colombian election, though no such triggers have materialized.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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