Redistricting consolidated two longtime Democratic strongholds into Texas’s 18th Congressional District, forcing a May 26 runoff between incumbents Christian Menefee and Al Green after neither topped 50 percent in the March primary. Menefee, who secured the seat via special election last year, holds a commanding lead in recent University of Houston and Lake Research polls while outraising Green by roughly two-to-one in the latest quarter. The 38-year-old’s incumbency advantage in the district’s core areas and stronger recent fundraising have shaped trader consensus around his high probability of nomination. Green, the 78-year-old veteran, retains name recognition but trails on momentum and resources. Minor candidates remain negligible factors. Late developments such as shared emphasis on voting-rights legislation have not materially altered the positioning ahead of the runoff.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoChristian Menefee 89.3%
Al Green 10.3%
Gretchen Brown <1%
Amanda Edwards <1%
$27,959 Vol.
$27,959 Vol.
Christian Menefee
89%
Al Green
10%
Gretchen Brown
<1%
Amanda Edwards
<1%
Christian Menefee 89.3%
Al Green 10.3%
Gretchen Brown <1%
Amanda Edwards <1%
$27,959 Vol.
$27,959 Vol.
Christian Menefee
89%
Al Green
10%
Gretchen Brown
<1%
Amanda Edwards
<1%
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Mercato aperto: Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting consolidated two longtime Democratic strongholds into Texas’s 18th Congressional District, forcing a May 26 runoff between incumbents Christian Menefee and Al Green after neither topped 50 percent in the March primary. Menefee, who secured the seat via special election last year, holds a commanding lead in recent University of Houston and Lake Research polls while outraising Green by roughly two-to-one in the latest quarter. The 38-year-old’s incumbency advantage in the district’s core areas and stronger recent fundraising have shaped trader consensus around his high probability of nomination. Green, the 78-year-old veteran, retains name recognition but trails on momentum and resources. Minor candidates remain negligible factors. Late developments such as shared emphasis on voting-rights legislation have not materially altered the positioning ahead of the runoff.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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