This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie at 66.5% to win Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his strong historical performance and loyal base in the solidly Republican district, even as recent polls show a tightening race. Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and fifth-generation farmer, has climbed to 34.3% amid heavy outside spending criticizing Massie's independent voting record on issues like spending and foreign aid, which some view as misaligned with party priorities. A May 13 Quantus Insights poll indicated Gallrein leading 48.3%-43.1% among likely voters, with 7.6% undecided, highlighting early voting turnout and base mobilization as pivotal factors ahead of election day.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Trader consensus on Polymarket favors incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie at 66.5% to win Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his strong historical performance and loyal base in the solidly Republican district, even as recent polls show a tightening race. Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and fifth-generation farmer, has climbed to 34.3% amid heavy outside spending criticizing Massie's independent voting record on issues like spending and foreign aid, which some view as misaligned with party priorities. A May 13 Quantus Insights poll indicated Gallrein leading 48.3%-43.1% among likely voters, with 7.6% undecided, highlighting early voting turnout and base mobilization as pivotal factors ahead of election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
May 14 2026
House passes funding package with Thomas Massie as sole Republican no vote
Thomas Massie drops to 61%14%
Thomas Massie was the only Republican to vote against a government funding package, highlighting his maverick stance and possibly affecting his market support negatively in the short term.
May 6 2026
Massie’s market hits 78% after final pre‑primary rally
Thomas Massie rises to 78%4%
A televised rally in Lexington featuring Massie and Trump supporters generated strong media coverage, pushing the market to its peak ahead of the May 19 primary.
May 5 2026
Trump backs primary challenger against Thomas Massie
Thomas Massie drops to 61%14%
President Trump endorsed a primary challenger to Thomas Massie, reflecting intra-party conflict and causing volatility in Massie's market support, which saw a temporary increase followed by a decline.
Apr 22 2026
Rep. Andy Barr announces Senate run, exits House race
Thomas Massie rises to 74%4%
Barr’s decision to run for the Senate left Kentucky’s 4th district open, shifting GOP focus to the KY‑04 primary and giving Massie a clearer path, nudging his price upward.
Mar 10 2026
Trump endorses challenger against Thomas Massie in KY-04 primary
Thomas Massie plunges to 60%15%
President Donald Trump endorsed a primary challenger against incumbent Thomas Massie, signaling a rift due to Massie's defiance on issues like the Epstein files, which caused a significant drop in Massie's market support and reshaped the primary race dynamics.
Feb 19 2026
Justice Department announces discovery of over a million new Epstein documents
Thomas Massie jumps to 76%13%
The DOJ's announcement of uncovering over a million additional Epstein-related documents delayed the release process, intensifying scrutiny. Massie's criticism of DOJ's illegal redactions bolstered his image as a transparency advocate, impacting his market support positively.
Feb 15 2026
DOJ announces further delay in releasing Epstein documents
Thomas Massie drops to 71%5%
The Justice Department’s statement that it needed additional weeks to finish the release revived concerns raised by Massie, causing a modest dip in his price as uncertainty grew.
Feb 1 2026
Justice Department reveals over 5 million Epstein documents under review
Thomas Massie jumps to 76%13%
The DOJ announced a massive review of Epstein-related documents, validating Massie's claims of delayed and incomplete release, keeping the issue in the spotlight and reinforcing his image as a transparency advocate, which affected his market position.
Jan 29 2026
House passes GOP health care bill excluding ACA subsidy extension
Thomas Massie plunges to 63%15%
The House passed a Republican health care package that did not extend Affordable Care Act subsidies, with Thomas Massie as the only Republican voting against it, reflecting his moderate stance and opposition to party leadership, which influenced his market support.
Jan 21 2026
Judge blocks Massie and Khanna from intervening in Epstein files case
Thomas Massie jumps to 78%6%
A judge ruled that Massie and Khanna could not intervene in the criminal case of Ghislaine Maxwell to oversee the release of Epstein files, underscoring the legal challenges faced by Massie in his efforts to push transparency, which kept his name in the news and affected his political standing.
Jan 14 2026
Clintons refuse to testify in House Epstein probe amid contempt threats
Thomas Massie dips to 76%2%
The refusal of Bill and Hillary Clinton to testify in the House Epstein investigation, with Massie involved in the probe, kept the Epstein files issue in the spotlight, sustaining Massie's prominence and market support.
Jan 8 2026
Massie and Khanna demand DOJ release full Epstein files
Thomas Massie rises to 72%4%
Rep. Thomas Massie co‑authored a letter urging a judge to appoint a neutral monitor after the DOJ missed the deadline, raising his profile and boosting his market price.
Jan 8 2026
Massie and Khanna urge court to appoint neutral expert for Epstein files release
Thomas Massie jumps to 78%6%
Massie, alongside Rep. Ro Khanna, requested a judge to appoint a neutral expert to oversee the release of Epstein files, highlighting concerns about DOJ compliance. This action reinforced Massie's image as a fighter for transparency, supporting his market position.
Dec 27 2025
Ed Gallrein’s campaign suffers fundraising shortfall
Ed Gallrein drops to 27%14%
A report on Gallrein’s stalled fundraising efforts led to a noticeable drop in his market price as donors shifted support elsewhere.
Dec 18 2025
Massie co‑authors Epstein Files Transparency Act
Thomas Massie surges to 68%22%
Massie’s legislative role in the Epstein Files Transparency Act raised his national profile, contributing to the early rise in his market price.
Dec 10 2025
Trump backs challenger to Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky primary
Thomas Massie surges to 76%30%
President Trump publicly endorsed a primary opponent to Massie, signaling intra‑party conflict and prompting a surge in Massie's market price as supporters rallied behind him.
Dec 5 2025
Robert Wells Jr. suspends campaign after personal scandal
Robert Wells Jr. plunges to 0%46%
Wells Jr. faced a personal scandal that led him to suspend his campaign, causing his market price to collapse to zero.
Dec 3 2025
Nicole Lee Ethington withdraws from KY‑04 race
Nicole Lee Ethington plunges to 0%46%
Ethington’s early exit from the primary eliminated her from contention, driving her market price to zero.
Dec 1 2025
Thomas Massie co-authors Epstein Files Transparency Act
Thomas Massie surges to 61%15%
Rep. Thomas Massie co-authored legislation mandating the release of Jeffrey Epstein investigative files, raising his profile and support in the KY-04 Republican primary market. This legislative action increased investor confidence in Massie's candidacy, reflected in a price jump from 46% to 61%.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie at 66.5% to win Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his strong historical performance and loyal base in the solidly Republican district, even as recent polls show a tightening race. Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and fifth-generation farmer, has climbed to 34.3% amid heavy outside spending criticizing Massie's independent voting record on issues like spending and foreign aid, which some view as misaligned with party priorities. A May 13 Quantus Insights poll indicated Gallrein leading 48.3%-43.1% among likely voters, with 7.6% undecided, highlighting early voting turnout and base mobilization as pivotal factors ahead of election day.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Trader consensus on Polymarket favors incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie at 66.5% to win Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his strong historical performance and loyal base in the solidly Republican district, even as recent polls show a tightening race. Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL and fifth-generation farmer, has climbed to 34.3% amid heavy outside spending criticizing Massie's independent voting record on issues like spending and foreign aid, which some view as misaligned with party priorities. A May 13 Quantus Insights poll indicated Gallrein leading 48.3%-43.1% among likely voters, with 7.6% undecided, highlighting early voting turnout and base mobilization as pivotal factors ahead of election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
May 14 2026
House passes funding package with Thomas Massie as sole Republican no vote
Thomas Massie drops to 61%14%
Thomas Massie was the only Republican to vote against a government funding package, highlighting his maverick stance and possibly affecting his market support negatively in the short term.
May 6 2026
Massie’s market hits 78% after final pre‑primary rally
Thomas Massie rises to 78%4%
A televised rally in Lexington featuring Massie and Trump supporters generated strong media coverage, pushing the market to its peak ahead of the May 19 primary.
May 5 2026
Trump backs primary challenger against Thomas Massie
Thomas Massie drops to 61%14%
President Trump endorsed a primary challenger to Thomas Massie, reflecting intra-party conflict and causing volatility in Massie's market support, which saw a temporary increase followed by a decline.
Apr 22 2026
Rep. Andy Barr announces Senate run, exits House race
Thomas Massie rises to 74%4%
Barr’s decision to run for the Senate left Kentucky’s 4th district open, shifting GOP focus to the KY‑04 primary and giving Massie a clearer path, nudging his price upward.
Mar 10 2026
Trump endorses challenger against Thomas Massie in KY-04 primary
Thomas Massie plunges to 60%15%
President Donald Trump endorsed a primary challenger against incumbent Thomas Massie, signaling a rift due to Massie's defiance on issues like the Epstein files, which caused a significant drop in Massie's market support and reshaped the primary race dynamics.
Feb 19 2026
Justice Department announces discovery of over a million new Epstein documents
Thomas Massie jumps to 76%13%
The DOJ's announcement of uncovering over a million additional Epstein-related documents delayed the release process, intensifying scrutiny. Massie's criticism of DOJ's illegal redactions bolstered his image as a transparency advocate, impacting his market support positively.
Feb 15 2026
DOJ announces further delay in releasing Epstein documents
Thomas Massie drops to 71%5%
The Justice Department’s statement that it needed additional weeks to finish the release revived concerns raised by Massie, causing a modest dip in his price as uncertainty grew.
Feb 1 2026
Justice Department reveals over 5 million Epstein documents under review
Thomas Massie jumps to 76%13%
The DOJ announced a massive review of Epstein-related documents, validating Massie's claims of delayed and incomplete release, keeping the issue in the spotlight and reinforcing his image as a transparency advocate, which affected his market position.
Jan 29 2026
House passes GOP health care bill excluding ACA subsidy extension
Thomas Massie plunges to 63%15%
The House passed a Republican health care package that did not extend Affordable Care Act subsidies, with Thomas Massie as the only Republican voting against it, reflecting his moderate stance and opposition to party leadership, which influenced his market support.
Jan 21 2026
Judge blocks Massie and Khanna from intervening in Epstein files case
Thomas Massie jumps to 78%6%
A judge ruled that Massie and Khanna could not intervene in the criminal case of Ghislaine Maxwell to oversee the release of Epstein files, underscoring the legal challenges faced by Massie in his efforts to push transparency, which kept his name in the news and affected his political standing.
Jan 14 2026
Clintons refuse to testify in House Epstein probe amid contempt threats
Thomas Massie dips to 76%2%
The refusal of Bill and Hillary Clinton to testify in the House Epstein investigation, with Massie involved in the probe, kept the Epstein files issue in the spotlight, sustaining Massie's prominence and market support.
Jan 8 2026
Massie and Khanna demand DOJ release full Epstein files
Thomas Massie rises to 72%4%
Rep. Thomas Massie co‑authored a letter urging a judge to appoint a neutral monitor after the DOJ missed the deadline, raising his profile and boosting his market price.
Jan 8 2026
Massie and Khanna urge court to appoint neutral expert for Epstein files release
Thomas Massie jumps to 78%6%
Massie, alongside Rep. Ro Khanna, requested a judge to appoint a neutral expert to oversee the release of Epstein files, highlighting concerns about DOJ compliance. This action reinforced Massie's image as a fighter for transparency, supporting his market position.
Dec 27 2025
Ed Gallrein’s campaign suffers fundraising shortfall
Ed Gallrein drops to 27%14%
A report on Gallrein’s stalled fundraising efforts led to a noticeable drop in his market price as donors shifted support elsewhere.
Dec 18 2025
Massie co‑authors Epstein Files Transparency Act
Thomas Massie surges to 68%22%
Massie’s legislative role in the Epstein Files Transparency Act raised his national profile, contributing to the early rise in his market price.
Dec 10 2025
Trump backs challenger to Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky primary
Thomas Massie surges to 76%30%
President Trump publicly endorsed a primary opponent to Massie, signaling intra‑party conflict and prompting a surge in Massie's market price as supporters rallied behind him.
Dec 5 2025
Robert Wells Jr. suspends campaign after personal scandal
Robert Wells Jr. plunges to 0%46%
Wells Jr. faced a personal scandal that led him to suspend his campaign, causing his market price to collapse to zero.
Dec 3 2025
Nicole Lee Ethington withdraws from KY‑04 race
Nicole Lee Ethington plunges to 0%46%
Ethington’s early exit from the primary eliminated her from contention, driving her market price to zero.
Dec 1 2025
Thomas Massie co-authors Epstein Files Transparency Act
Thomas Massie surges to 61%15%
Rep. Thomas Massie co-authored legislation mandating the release of Jeffrey Epstein investigative files, raising his profile and support in the KY-04 Republican primary market. This legislative action increased investor confidence in Massie's candidacy, reflected in a price jump from 46% to 61%.
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Domande frequenti
"KY-04 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie" è un mercato predittivo su Polymarket con 4 possibili esiti dove i trader comprano e vendono azioni in base a ciò che credono accadrà. L'esito attualmente in testa è "Thomas Massie" a 67%, seguito da "Ed Gallrein" a 34%. I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale. Ad esempio, un'azione quotata a 67¢ implica che il mercato assegna collettivamente una probabilità di 67% a quell'esito. Queste quote cambiano continuamente man mano che i trader reagiscono a nuovi sviluppi e informazioni. Le azioni nell'esito corretto possono essere riscattate per $1 ciascuna alla risoluzione del mercato.
Ad oggi, "KY-04 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie" ha generato $1.1 million in volume totale di trading dal lancio del mercato il Dec 1, 2025. Questo livello di attività di trading riflette un forte coinvolgimento della comunità Polymarket e contribuisce a garantire che le quote attuali siano informate da un ampio pool di partecipanti al mercato. Puoi seguire i movimenti di prezzo in tempo reale e fare trading su qualsiasi esito direttamente su questa pagina.
Per fare trading su "KY-04 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie", esplora i 4 esiti disponibili elencati in questa pagina. Ogni esito mostra un prezzo corrente che rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Per prendere una posizione, seleziona l'esito che ritieni più probabile, scegli "Sì" per fare trading a suo favore o "No" per fare trading contro di esso, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se il tuo esito scelto è corretto alla risoluzione del mercato, le tue azioni "Sì" pagano $1 ciascuna. Se è errato, pagano $0. Puoi anche vendere le tue azioni in qualsiasi momento prima della risoluzione se vuoi consolidare un profitto o limitare una perdita.
L'attuale favorito per "KY-04 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie" è "Thomas Massie" a 67%, il che significa che il mercato assegna una probabilità di 67% a quell'esito. L'esito successivo più vicino è "Ed Gallrein" a 34%. Queste quote si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che i trader comprano e vendono azioni, quindi riflettono l'ultima visione collettiva di ciò che è più probabile che accada. Controlla frequentemente o aggiungi questa pagina ai preferiti per seguire come cambiano le quote man mano che emergono nuove informazioni.
Le regole di risoluzione per "KY-04 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie" definiscono esattamente cosa deve accadere affinché ogni esito venga dichiarato vincitore — comprese le fonti di dati ufficiali utilizzate per determinare il risultato. Puoi consultare i criteri completi di risoluzione nella sezione "Regole" di questa pagina sopra i commenti. Ti consigliamo di leggere attentamente le regole prima di fare trading, poiché specificano le condizioni precise, i casi limite e le fonti che regolano come viene risolto questo mercato.
Sì. Non è necessario fare trading per restare informati. Questa pagina funziona come un tracker live per "KY-04 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie". Le probabilità degli esiti si aggiornano in tempo reale man mano che arrivano nuove operazioni. Puoi aggiungere questa pagina ai preferiti e controllare la sezione commenti per vedere cosa dicono gli altri trader. Puoi anche usare i filtri temporali sul grafico per vedere come sono cambiate le quote nel tempo. È una finestra gratuita e in tempo reale su ciò che il mercato si aspetta accada.
Le quote di Polymarket sono stabilite da veri trader che investono denaro reale nelle loro convinzioni, il che tende a produrre previsioni accurate. Con $1.1 million scambiati su "KY-04 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie", questi prezzi aggregano la conoscenza collettiva e la convinzione di migliaia di partecipanti — spesso superando sondaggi, previsioni di esperti e indagini tradizionali. I mercati predittivi come Polymarket hanno un forte track record di accuratezza, specialmente man mano che gli eventi si avvicinano alla data di risoluzione. Ad esempio, Polymarket ha un punteggio di accuratezza a un mese di 94%. Per le ultime statistiche sull'accuratezza delle previsioni di Polymarket, visita la pagina accuratezza su Polymarket.
Per piazzare la tua prima operazione su "KY-04 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie", registrati per un account Polymarket gratuito e finanzialo con crypto, carta di credito o debito, o bonifico bancario. Una volta finanziato il tuo account, torna su questa pagina, seleziona l'esito su cui vuoi fare trading, inserisci il tuo importo e clicca "Trading". Se sei nuovo ai mercati predittivi, clicca il link "Come funziona" in cima a qualsiasi pagina Polymarket per una guida passo-passo su come funziona il trading.
Su Polymarket, il prezzo di ogni esito rappresenta la probabilità implicita del mercato. Un prezzo di 67¢ per "Thomas Massie" nel mercato "KY-04 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie" significa che i trader credono collettivamente che ci sia circa una probabilità di 67% che "Thomas Massie" sia il risultato corretto. Se compri azioni "Sì" a 67¢ e l'esito è corretto, ricevi $1,00 per azione — un profitto di 33¢ per azione. Se errato, quelle azioni valgono $0.
Il mercato "KY-04 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie" è programmato per la risoluzione il o intorno al May 19, 2026. Questo significa che il trading rimarrà aperto e le quote continueranno a cambiare man mano che emergono nuove informazioni fino a quella data. La tempistica esatta di risoluzione dipende da quando il risultato ufficiale diventa disponibile, come indicato nella sezione "Regole" su questa pagina.
Il mercato "KY-04 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie" ha una comunità attiva di 78 commenti dove i trader condividono le loro analisi, discutono gli esiti e commentano gli sviluppi dell'ultima ora. Scorri in basso alla sezione commenti per leggere cosa pensano gli altri partecipanti. Puoi anche filtrare per "Maggiori detentori" per vedere su cosa sono posizionati i più grandi trader del mercato, o controllare la scheda "Attività" per un feed in tempo reale delle operazioni.
Polymarket è il più grande mercato predittivo al mondo, dove puoi restare informato e trarre profitto dalla tua conoscenza di eventi reali. I trader comprano e vendono azioni sugli esiti per argomenti che spaziano dalla politica e le elezioni alle crypto, finanza, sport, tecnologia e cultura, inclusi mercati come "KY-04 Vincitore repubblicano delle primarie". I prezzi riflettono probabilità aggregate in tempo reale supportate da convinzione finanziaria, fornendo spesso segnali più rapidi e accurati di sondaggi, opinionisti o indagini tradizionali.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti