The collapse of Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan’s pro-European coalition on May 5 through a no-confidence motion backed by the Social Democrats (PSD) and Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) has left coalition negotiations open-ended ahead of the May 31 resolution date. President Nicușor Dan is now leading talks aimed at restoring a grand coalition among the PSD, National Liberals (PNL), Save Romania Union (USR) and Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR), while explicitly ruling out AUR participation. This fluid process keeps several combinations clustered near 40 percent in trader pricing, as no single grouping yet commands a clear parliamentary majority or presidential nomination. Key variables include which PNL figure might receive the premiership nod, PSD willingness to re-enter under revised fiscal terms, and the outcome of ongoing cross-party consultations. Any formal announcement naming a prime-minister candidate or securing explicit party commitments would likely shift probabilities decisively among the leading options.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPNL + UDMR 38.9%
PNL + USR + UDMR 16%
PSD + PNL + USR 5%
UDMR 4.1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 mag 2026
PSD
30%
PNL
40%
USR
1%
UDMR
4%
AUR
10%
PSD + PNL
37%
PSD + USR
3%
PSD + UDMR
39%
PSD + AUR
37%
PNL + USR
4%
PNL + UDMR
39%
PNL + AUR
15%
USR + UDMR
1%
USR + AUR
1%
UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR
5%
PSD + PNL + UDMR
18%
PSD + PNL + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR
4%
PSD + USR + AUR
1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR
16%
PNL + USR + AUR
1%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
4%
USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
39%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
4%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
1%
Other
38%
PNL + UDMR 38.9%
PNL + USR + UDMR 16%
PSD + PNL + USR 5%
UDMR 4.1%
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 mag 2026
PSD
$30 Vol.
30%
PNL
$101 Vol.
40%
USR
$785 Vol.
1%
UDMR
$580 Vol.
4%
AUR
$30 Vol.
10%
PSD + PNL
$118 Vol.
37%
PSD + USR
$456 Vol.
3%
PSD + UDMR
$36 Vol.
39%
PSD + AUR
$122 Vol.
37%
PNL + USR
$51 Vol.
4%
PNL + UDMR
$67 Vol.
39%
PNL + AUR
$155 Vol.
15%
USR + UDMR
$250 Vol.
1%
USR + AUR
$640 Vol.
1%
UDMR + AUR
$330 Vol.
1%
PSD + PNL + USR
$30 Vol.
5%
PSD + PNL + UDMR
$65 Vol.
18%
PSD + PNL + AUR
$84 Vol.
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR
$305 Vol.
4%
PSD + USR + AUR
$297 Vol.
1%
PSD + UDMR + AUR
$369 Vol.
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR
$230 Vol.
16%
PNL + USR + AUR
$298 Vol.
1%
PNL + UDMR + AUR
$154 Vol.
4%
USR + UDMR + AUR
$260 Vol.
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR
$30 Vol.
39%
PSD + PNL + USR + AUR
$319 Vol.
4%
PSD + PNL + UDMR + AUR
$336 Vol.
1%
PSD + USR + UDMR + AUR
$361 Vol.
1%
PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$319 Vol.
1%
PSD + PNL + USR + UDMR + AUR
$356 Vol.
1%
Other
$50 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.The collapse of Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan’s pro-European coalition on May 5 through a no-confidence motion backed by the Social Democrats (PSD) and Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) has left coalition negotiations open-ended ahead of the May 31 resolution date. President Nicușor Dan is now leading talks aimed at restoring a grand coalition among the PSD, National Liberals (PNL), Save Romania Union (USR) and Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR), while explicitly ruling out AUR participation. This fluid process keeps several combinations clustered near 40 percent in trader pricing, as no single grouping yet commands a clear parliamentary majority or presidential nomination. Key variables include which PNL figure might receive the premiership nod, PSD willingness to re-enter under revised fiscal terms, and the outcome of ongoing cross-party consultations. Any formal announcement naming a prime-minister candidate or securing explicit party commitments would likely shift probabilities decisively among the leading options.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
Mercato aperto: May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ET
Volume
$7,612Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.The collapse of Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan’s pro-European coalition on May 5 through a no-confidence motion backed by the Social Democrats (PSD) and Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) has left coalition negotiations open-ended ahead of the May 31 resolution date. President Nicușor Dan is now leading talks aimed at restoring a grand coalition among the PSD, National Liberals (PNL), Save Romania Union (USR) and Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR), while explicitly ruling out AUR participation. This fluid process keeps several combinations clustered near 40 percent in trader pricing, as no single grouping yet commands a clear parliamentary majority or presidential nomination. Key variables include which PNL figure might receive the premiership nod, PSD willingness to re-enter under revised fiscal terms, and the outcome of ongoing cross-party consultations. Any formal announcement naming a prime-minister candidate or securing explicit party commitments would likely shift probabilities decisively among the leading options.
This market will resolve to the first governing coalition of parties formed in Romania after market creation.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
A party will only be considered part of the governing coalition if it participates in the governing coalition and provides at least one Cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government from outside Cabinet, including through confidence-and-supply agreements or similar arrangements, without holding a Cabinet post, will not qualify.
The following parties will be considered for this market: Social Democratic Party (PSD); National Liberal Party (PNL); Save Romania Union (USR); Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR); Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR). All other parties will not be considered.
Resolution will be based on the listed option that most completely matches the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition formed includes all of the parties listed in a market option, along with any other parties, that option will resolve to “Yes” unless there exists another market option that more completely covers the coalition. A listed option will not resolve to “Yes” if any of its listed parties are not included in the coalition.
For example:
- If the governing coalition includes PSD + PNL + UDMR, the option “PSD + PNL + UDMR” will resolve to “Yes”, while “PSD + PNL” will resolve to “No”.
In the event that the ruling coalition includes all parties for multiple market options, and each option contains an equal number of coalition parties, the tie will be resolved in favor of the option whose listed parties together hold the greater number of seats in the Romanian Parliament (Senate and Chamber of Deputies). If this presents another tie, this market will resolve in favor of the listed option whose parties received the greatest number of valid votes in the previous Romanian parliamentary election.
If the governing coalition does not include all parties in any listed option, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market may resolve once the next Romanian government is officially formed following Parliament’s vote of confidence and the taking of the oath of office by the members of the Government.
If the next Romanian government coalition is not confirmed by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the government of Romania.
Volume
$7,612Data di fine
31 mag 2026Mercato aperto
May 11, 2026, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The collapse of Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan’s pro-European coalition on May 5 through a no-confidence motion backed by the Social Democrats (PSD) and Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR) has left coalition negotiations open-ended ahead of the May 31 resolution date. President Nicușor Dan is now leading talks aimed at restoring a grand coalition among the PSD, National Liberals (PNL), Save Romania Union (USR) and Democratic Union of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR), while explicitly ruling out AUR participation. This fluid process keeps several combinations clustered near 40 percent in trader pricing, as no single grouping yet commands a clear parliamentary majority or presidential nomination. Key variables include which PNL figure might receive the premiership nod, PSD willingness to re-enter under revised fiscal terms, and the outcome of ongoing cross-party consultations. Any formal announcement naming a prime-minister candidate or securing explicit party commitments would likely shift probabilities decisively among the leading options.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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