Recent local and devolved election results on 7 May delivered sharp setbacks for the Labour government, leaving net approval ratings near -49 and Reform UK ahead in subsequent Westminster polling. Traders nonetheless assign a 66% implied probability that government approval will rise this week, reflecting expectations that the initial post-election reaction has peaked and that public sentiment may stabilise absent fresh controversies. Prime Minister Starmer’s appointment of Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman as advisers, together with his public commitment to remain in post, has provided the most recent institutional signals that could support modest weekly gains in favourability measures. With the baseline already low, even small polling movements in the absence of further negative events would register as an uptick.