The Trump administration's explicit statements and diplomatic actions have anchored trader expectations against U.S. recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by the end of 2026. President Trump has publicly questioned Pahlavi's domestic support inside Iran, while Vice President JD Vance has stated that regime change or installing the exiled opposition figure is not administration policy. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum affirmed Iranian sovereignty and omitted any reference to transition plans or opposition figures, with officials sidelining Pahlavi in diplomatic channels. Ongoing protests, divisions among Iranian opposition groups, and the administration's focus on negotiated stability rather than leadership replacement have reinforced the near-certain consensus reflected in current pricing. A sudden, verifiable regime collapse or abrupt policy reversal before December 31 remain the main low-probability developments that could still alter the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGli Stati Uniti riconoscono Reza Pahlavi come leader dell'Iran nel 2026?
Gli Stati Uniti riconoscono Reza Pahlavi come leader dell'Iran nel 2026?
Sì
4% probabilità
$625,102 Vol.
$625,102 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$625,102 Vol.
$625,102 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Trump administration's explicit statements and diplomatic actions have anchored trader expectations against U.S. recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by the end of 2026. President Trump has publicly questioned Pahlavi's domestic support inside Iran, while Vice President JD Vance has stated that regime change or installing the exiled opposition figure is not administration policy. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum affirmed Iranian sovereignty and omitted any reference to transition plans or opposition figures, with officials sidelining Pahlavi in diplomatic channels. Ongoing protests, divisions among Iranian opposition groups, and the administration's focus on negotiated stability rather than leadership replacement have reinforced the near-certain consensus reflected in current pricing. A sudden, verifiable regime collapse or abrupt policy reversal before December 31 remain the main low-probability developments that could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ET
Volume
$625,102Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Trump administration's explicit statements and diplomatic actions have anchored trader expectations against U.S. recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by the end of 2026. President Trump has publicly questioned Pahlavi's domestic support inside Iran, while Vice President JD Vance has stated that regime change or installing the exiled opposition figure is not administration policy. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum affirmed Iranian sovereignty and omitted any reference to transition plans or opposition figures, with officials sidelining Pahlavi in diplomatic channels. Ongoing protests, divisions among Iranian opposition groups, and the administration's focus on negotiated stability rather than leadership replacement have reinforced the near-certain consensus reflected in current pricing. A sudden, verifiable regime collapse or abrupt policy reversal before December 31 remain the main low-probability developments that could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$625,102Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration's explicit statements and diplomatic actions have anchored trader expectations against U.S. recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by the end of 2026. President Trump has publicly questioned Pahlavi's domestic support inside Iran, while Vice President JD Vance has stated that regime change or installing the exiled opposition figure is not administration policy. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum affirmed Iranian sovereignty and omitted any reference to transition plans or opposition figures, with officials sidelining Pahlavi in diplomatic channels. Ongoing protests, divisions among Iranian opposition groups, and the administration's focus on negotiated stability rather than leadership replacement have reinforced the near-certain consensus reflected in current pricing. A sudden, verifiable regime collapse or abrupt policy reversal before December 31 remain the main low-probability developments that could still alter the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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