The Trump administration's explicit rejection of regime change or installing Reza Pahlavi has anchored trader consensus against U.S. recognition by December 31, 2026. President Trump has publicly questioned Pahlavi's ability to secure domestic Iranian support, while Vice President Vance confirmed that installing the exiled opposition figure is not administration policy. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum further reinforced this stance by affirming Iranian sovereignty and pledging non-interference in internal affairs, with officials sidelining Pahlavi in diplomatic channels amid opposition divisions and limited visibility during protests. Pahlavi's advocacy at events such as CPAC has not altered these positions. A sudden, verifiable regime collapse or abrupt policy reversal remain the primary low-probability developments that could still shift the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoGli Stati Uniti riconoscono Reza Pahlavi come leader dell'Iran nel 2026?
Gli Stati Uniti riconoscono Reza Pahlavi come leader dell'Iran nel 2026?
Sì
4% probabilità
$625,097 Vol.
$625,097 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
4% probabilità
$625,097 Vol.
$625,097 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Trump administration's explicit rejection of regime change or installing Reza Pahlavi has anchored trader consensus against U.S. recognition by December 31, 2026. President Trump has publicly questioned Pahlavi's ability to secure domestic Iranian support, while Vice President Vance confirmed that installing the exiled opposition figure is not administration policy. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum further reinforced this stance by affirming Iranian sovereignty and pledging non-interference in internal affairs, with officials sidelining Pahlavi in diplomatic channels amid opposition divisions and limited visibility during protests. Pahlavi's advocacy at events such as CPAC has not altered these positions. A sudden, verifiable regime collapse or abrupt policy reversal remain the primary low-probability developments that could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ET
Volume
$625,097Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Trump administration's explicit rejection of regime change or installing Reza Pahlavi has anchored trader consensus against U.S. recognition by December 31, 2026. President Trump has publicly questioned Pahlavi's ability to secure domestic Iranian support, while Vice President Vance confirmed that installing the exiled opposition figure is not administration policy. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum further reinforced this stance by affirming Iranian sovereignty and pledging non-interference in internal affairs, with officials sidelining Pahlavi in diplomatic channels amid opposition divisions and limited visibility during protests. Pahlavi's advocacy at events such as CPAC has not altered these positions. A sudden, verifiable regime collapse or abrupt policy reversal remain the primary low-probability developments that could still shift the outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$625,097Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration's explicit rejection of regime change or installing Reza Pahlavi has anchored trader consensus against U.S. recognition by December 31, 2026. President Trump has publicly questioned Pahlavi's ability to secure domestic Iranian support, while Vice President Vance confirmed that installing the exiled opposition figure is not administration policy. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum further reinforced this stance by affirming Iranian sovereignty and pledging non-interference in internal affairs, with officials sidelining Pahlavi in diplomatic channels amid opposition divisions and limited visibility during protests. Pahlavi's advocacy at events such as CPAC has not altered these positions. A sudden, verifiable regime collapse or abrupt policy reversal remain the primary low-probability developments that could still shift the outcome.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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