Trader consensus heavily favors no replacement for Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup (85.1% implied probability), driven by FIFA's repeated affirmations that Iran's status remains unchanged following their AFC qualification and the December draw, alongside rejections of U.S. envoy proposals to slot in Italy. Recent statements from Iran's football federation, as of early May, confirm intent to participate pending visa guarantees for officials and security assurances amid U.S. host-nation tensions over IRGC ties, with the U.S. clarifying players are welcome. Italy's sports minister dismissed replacement talk, emphasizing qualification earned on the pitch. Challenges would require Iran's formal withdrawal—unlikely given ongoing negotiations—or unprecedented FIFA intervention, potentially elevating UAE as the next AFC candidate.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale squadra sostituirà l'Iran alla Coppa del Mondo FIFA?
Quale squadra sostituirà l'Iran alla Coppa del Mondo FIFA?
No Replacement 85.6%
Italy 6.9%
UAE 4.4%
Other <1%
$30,526 Vol.
$30,526 Vol.
31 ago 2026
No Replacement
86%
Italy
7%
UAE
4%
Other
1%
Bolivia
<1%
No Replacement 85.6%
Italy 6.9%
UAE 4.4%
Other <1%
$30,526 Vol.
$30,526 Vol.
31 ago 2026
No Replacement
$8,328 Vol.
86%
Italy
$15,316 Vol.
7%
UAE
$2,961 Vol.
4%
Other
$2,280 Vol.
1%
Bolivia
$1,641 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no replacement for Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup (85.1% implied probability), driven by FIFA's repeated affirmations that Iran's status remains unchanged following their AFC qualification and the December draw, alongside rejections of U.S. envoy proposals to slot in Italy. Recent statements from Iran's football federation, as of early May, confirm intent to participate pending visa guarantees for officials and security assurances amid U.S. host-nation tensions over IRGC ties, with the U.S. clarifying players are welcome. Italy's sports minister dismissed replacement talk, emphasizing qualification earned on the pitch. Challenges would require Iran's formal withdrawal—unlikely given ongoing negotiations—or unprecedented FIFA intervention, potentially elevating UAE as the next AFC candidate.
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ET
Volume
$30,526Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors no replacement for Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup (85.1% implied probability), driven by FIFA's repeated affirmations that Iran's status remains unchanged following their AFC qualification and the December draw, alongside rejections of U.S. envoy proposals to slot in Italy. Recent statements from Iran's football federation, as of early May, confirm intent to participate pending visa guarantees for officials and security assurances amid U.S. host-nation tensions over IRGC ties, with the U.S. clarifying players are welcome. Italy's sports minister dismissed replacement talk, emphasizing qualification earned on the pitch. Challenges would require Iran's formal withdrawal—unlikely given ongoing negotiations—or unprecedented FIFA intervention, potentially elevating UAE as the next AFC candidate.
This market will resolve in favor of the men’s national team that is confirmed by FIFA to replace the Football Federation Islamic Republic of Iran (IR) at the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If an unlisted men’s national team is officially announced to replace Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, this market will resolve to “Other”
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no confirmation that any team will replace Iran within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “No Replacement”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$30,526Data di fine
31 ago 2026Mercato aperto
Apr 24, 2026, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors no replacement for Iran at the 2026 FIFA World Cup (85.1% implied probability), driven by FIFA's repeated affirmations that Iran's status remains unchanged following their AFC qualification and the December draw, alongside rejections of U.S. envoy proposals to slot in Italy. Recent statements from Iran's football federation, as of early May, confirm intent to participate pending visa guarantees for officials and security assurances amid U.S. host-nation tensions over IRGC ties, with the U.S. clarifying players are welcome. Italy's sports minister dismissed replacement talk, emphasizing qualification earned on the pitch. Challenges would require Iran's formal withdrawal—unlikely given ongoing negotiations—or unprecedented FIFA intervention, potentially elevating UAE as the next AFC candidate.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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