**The 77% market-implied probability for "No" on a 2026 engagement between Cardi B and Stefon Diggs reflects the couple’s documented volatility and lack of forward momentum toward commitment.** Their relationship began with public sightings in 2025, a confirmed pregnancy announcement in September 2025, and the birth of their son in November 2025. However, it quickly turned turbulent: by February 2026 the pair unfollowed each other on Instagram, Cardi addressed split speculation at a concert stop, and sources reported she had “pulled back” due to trust issues and heated dynamics. Brief reconciliation rumors surfaced in spring 2026 around public appearances and PDA at events, but these faded without confirmation of an ongoing romance. By July 2026 Cardi’s comments and song lyrics signaled the relationship had run its course, and recent September 2026 reporting describes an apparent split in the first quarter of the year. Cardi has publicly emphasized personal growth, independence, and career priorities—including a major 2027 tour—while being linked to others. Diggs’ earlier light comments about engagement being “on the agenda” came well before the February rupture and have not been followed by any concrete steps or renewed public commitment. With only a few months remaining in 2026, the pattern of instability, co-parenting focus, and absence of recent positive signals make an engagement announcement unlikely in the eyes of traders. The market treats the outcome as a low-probability event driven by the couple’s established on-and-off history rather than any sustained trajectory toward marriage.