Strong presales for *The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping*, running ahead of *Wicked* and Lionsgate’s own *Michael* while setting post-pandemic studio records, have driven trader consensus toward a 105 million-plus domestic opening with 87.9% implied probability. Recent tracking upgrades place the floor at 80 million or higher, fueled by the novel’s record first-week sales exceeding 1.5 million copies, a confirmed Jennifer Lawrence cameo that reignited core fandom, and trailer performance ranking among the studio’s strongest. Early-access premium screenings begin November 18 ahead of the wide November 20 release, giving the Francis Lawrence-directed prequel a clear path to surpass the prior entry’s modest 44.6 million debut and approach franchise highs if word-of-mouth sustains the current momentum.