Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million domestic opening weekend in late July 2026, the biggest in history and ahead of Avengers: Endgame, anchors trader consensus at 63.5% implied probability for the year’s largest debut. Its performance, driven by strong reviews, fan enthusiasm for the Tom Holland-Zendaya cast, and premium format sales, set an exceptionally high bar. Avengers: Doomsday sits at 37.5% on the strength of unprecedented early presales topping $50 million by September, with December 18 tracking in the $260–300 million range amid MCU nostalgia and Robert Downey Jr.’s Doctor Doom casting, though projections remain below Spider-Man’s mark. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah register minimal odds given their November and December dates and more modest anticipated openings relative to these superhero event films.