Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic debut in June—the year’s largest opening at the time and second-highest animated launch ever—anchors its 95% market-implied probability of finishing third overall. Its franchise appeal, A CinemaScore, and strong critical reception (93% on Rotten Tomatoes) produced a hold that outpaced most 2026 releases, positioning it behind only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million bow and one other major title. Traders see limited realistic upset paths from later 2026 entries such as Dune: Messiah or Avengers: Doomsday, whose tracking and historical patterns for the genre point to openings unlikely to slot between the top two and Toy Story 5’s established figure before year-end chart lock.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoQuale film ha il terzo miglior weekend di apertura nel 2026?
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 3.8%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 1.8%
$30,802 Vol.
$30,802 Vol.
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
2%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
Toy Story 5 95%
Dune: Messiah 3.8%
Avengers: Doomsday 2.1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping 1.8%
$30,802 Vol.
$30,802 Vol.
Toy Story 5
95%
Dune: Messiah
4%
Avengers: Doomsday
2%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
2%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
1%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Mercato aperto: Jul 23, 2026, 11:38 AM ET
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend.
If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Risolutore
0x69c47De9D...Toy Story 5’s $160 million domestic debut in June—the year’s largest opening at the time and second-highest animated launch ever—anchors its 95% market-implied probability of finishing third overall. Its franchise appeal, A CinemaScore, and strong critical reception (93% on Rotten Tomatoes) produced a hold that outpaced most 2026 releases, positioning it behind only Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s record $360 million bow and one other major title. Traders see limited realistic upset paths from later 2026 entries such as Dune: Messiah or Avengers: Doomsday, whose tracking and historical patterns for the genre point to openings unlikely to slot between the top two and Toy Story 5’s established figure before year-end chart lock.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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